如何通过机制的优化设计激励新型电力系统的协同规划、运行与演进 基于“机制控制”的方法

基于“机制控制”的方法 How to Incentivize the Collaborative Planning, Operation, and Evolution ofthe New-Type Power System Through Optimized Mechanism Design -An Approach Based on Mechanism Control: Cybernetics for Mechanisms 华南理工大学 荆朝霞 Zhaoxia Jing，SCUT 版权声明Copyright 本报告为华南理工大学荆朝霞教授2026年1月22日在中国能源研究会、清华大学及华南理工大学联合主办的第二届“中美低碳电力对话”（2026年1月22日至23日)大会上的发言，引用本报告相关观点及图片请注明来源及作者。感谢刘洋博士在控制理论方面提供的有价值的观点和建议。 This rep ort elaborates on Professor Zhaoxia Jing's presentation at the CUD 2026 (China-US Dialogue on Low-Carbon Power Development) on January 22,2026. Please cite the source and author when referencing any viewpoints or imagesfrom this report. We extend our sincere gratitude to Dr. Yang liu for providingvaluable insights and suggestions in the field of control theory.SCUT 主要内容 1.挑战：新型能源体系的结构性变革与机制冲突 Challenge: Structural Transformation andMechanism Conflicts in the New Energy System2.诊断：系统、市场失灵、价格、摩擦、控制视角 Diagnosis: Energy Maket Dysfunction -Perspectives on System、Maket Dysfunction、Price、Friction and control theory3.手段： 系统化评估与动态调控的理论框架 Framework: Energy Mechanism Control -ATheoretical Framework for Systematic Assessment and Dynamic Regulation基石： 支撑系统性治理的复杂系统与控制论 Cornerstone: Complex Systems andCybernetics for Systemic Governance框架： 能源机制设计Cybernetics for Mechanism on Power sector路径：顶层设计和递进式实施方案 Control:Top-Level Design and PhasedImplementation Plan 4. 总结和未来方向 Conclusions 主要内容 挑战：新型能源体系的结构性变革与机制冲突 Challenge: Structural Transformationand Mechanism Conflicts in the NewEnergy System 挑战：Challenges 变化：自然、能源系统、经济系统、环境，快速、剧烈 The global energy system is confronted with challenges arising from rapid and drastic changes inthe natural environment, physical energy infrastructure, socioeconomic systems, and theinternational landscape.SCUTSCUTSCUT 能源系统EnergySystem 挑战：Challenges 再改革：电力市场不适应，需再改革：英国、欧洲、澳大利亚、美国 Traditional electricity market models are ill-suited to the new environment. Multiple countries andregions, including the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia, are undertaking reforms or redesignsof their electricity markets. Copyright 2026 Zhaoxia Jing 挑战：Challenges 2025成效（中国）3：多项改革，为“十五五规划目标的实现奠定基础 China implemented multiple reforms in the electricity market sector in 2025, achieving positiveoutcomes and laying a solid foundation for meeting the targets outlined in the country's 15th Five-Year Plan. 标准性的事件： Standardized events include 136: market-driven pricing for all electricity generated from new energy sources南方市场: , the commencement of continuous settlement trial operations in the SouthernRegional Unified Electricity Spot Market,跨经营区市场化交易； _market-based trading transactions across operational zones betweenSouthern Power Grid and State Grid. Copyright 2026 Zhaoxia Jing 挑战：Challenges 困境：这些改革取得了多方面的成效，但是，也出现了一些导致市场“不和谐"的问题，如河北农村的冬季供暖问题、电力批发市场的主体串谋问题、中长期和现货衔接相关的新能源消纳、跨省交易等。 Paradoxes: While these reforms have yielded multifaceted outcomes, they have also givenrise to a number of issues that have led to market "disharmony," such as the winter heatingproblem in rural Hebei and collusion among entities in the wholesale electricity market. 电力批发市场的主体串谋 collusion amongentities in the wholesaleelectricity market 中长期和现货相关：新能源消纳、跨省交易medium-to-long-termand spot markets 河北农村的冬季供暖 winter heatingproblem in ruralHebei 不和谐disharmony Copyright 2026 Zhaoxia Jing 挑战：Challenges 原因：其中的一个重要原因是通过临时性或非系统的干预措施解决问题，在解决一个问题的同时,可能引起新的问题，比如加强对发电的市场力管控可能会导致过度监管造成激励不相容及市场价格进一步扭曲。 Cause: An important reason for this is that reliance on temporary or non-systemic interventions toaddress issues may solve one problem while creating new ones. For instance, strengthening marketand further distortion of market prices 临时性干预解决问题 temporary intervention 市场力管控→过度监管→激励不相容+价格扭曲个stricter control over market power in electricitygeneration-→excessive regulation-→incentiveincompatibility+further distortion of market prices 可以解决问题，以避免更大范围和程度的损害 address issues inthe short term to prevent broaderand more severe damage 可能引起新的问题 maylead to newissues Copyright 2026 Zhaoxia Jing 挑战：Challenges 复杂：电力市场是一个包括多个部分的，具有紧密耦合关系的复杂的系统，包括治理体系、组织体系、产品体系、交易体系和价格体系。 Complex: The electricity market is a complex architecture comprising several tightly-coupledsubsystems: the governance framework, the organizational structure, the product portfolio, thetrading mechanisms, and the pricing schemes. Copyright 2026 Zhaoxia Jing 挑战：Challenges 以跨省优先发电计划执行决策为例，涉及多个相互耦合的机制。Taking the decision-makingprocess for implementing inter-provincial priority generation dispatch plans as an example, itinvolves multiple interlinked mechanisms. Copyright-2026 Zhaoxia-Jing 挑战：Challenges 矛盾：也反映了电力市场面临的一些矛盾、需要协调的问题，很多也是整体经济发展需要关注的问题。如集中-分散、省内-省间、中长期-现货、短期-长期、局部-整体、存量-增量、新-旧、稳定-发展、管和放。 Contradictions: This reflects the inherent contradictions and the coordination challenges theyentail within the electricity market, many of which are also central to the overall economicdevelopment., such as those between planning and the market, intra-provincial and inter-provincial market,