全球金属周报：政府主导电池金属市场

24 February 2026 CommoditiesGlobal After the recent rally, we are marking-to-market forecasts, but without adjusting ourdirectional views. This means that we continue to expectaluminiumandcoppermarketdeficits in 2026 and, while prices could be capped into spring, we look towards summerwhen demand should rebound in the US, Europe and China for more upside. Similarly,while we acknowledge increased uncertainty over what the change in Fed leadership Global Commodity ResearchBofA Europe (Madrid) may bring, we also see a pathway forgoldto hit $6,000/oz over the next 12 months.Silveris a bit trickier and we are concerned that prices could pull back further near Michael WidmerCommodity StrategistMLI (UK)+44 20 7996 0694michael.widmer@bofa.com Francisco BlanchCommodity & Deriv StrategistBofA Europe (Madrid)+34 91 514 3070francisco.blanch@bofa.com Government interventions in lithium, nickel and cobalt Demand for the battery metals lithium, cobalt and nickelis all increasing by doubledigits. Nonetheless, prices cut into the cost curve. Why? Production has increasedrelentlessly, partly because China’s operators were looking to prevent constraints inbattery supply chains. The governments of China (lithium), Indonesia (nickel) and theDRC (cobalt) have increasingly taken issue with the weak fundamentals, implementingoutput cuts. These have been most pronounced in cobalt, where the DRC government Danica AverionCommodity StrategistMLI (UK)danica_ana.averion@bofa.com Clifton WhiteCommodityStrategistBofASclifton.white@bofa.com Daryna KovalskaCommodity StrategistMLI (UK)daryna.kovalska@bofa.com Equity ResearchJason Fairclough>>Research AnalystMLI (UK) Sweet spot in prices: not too hot, not too cold Given production of battery raw materials is concentrated,output cuts quickly fed intoprices. Indeed, lithium has rallied by 160% since June 2025 to an intra-year high of justabove $20,000/t in January. Against this backdrop, we note that production capacity thathad been idled still exists. Hence, the question remains how willing governments are tofine-tune curtailments. Higher lithium prices have already pushed up the cost of cathodeactive materials, thereby squeezing margins at battery producers. Unless prices of jason.fairclough@bofa.comCaio Ribeiro>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Brazil)caio.ribeiro@bofa.com Matty Zhao>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)matty.zhao@bofa.com See Team Page for List of Analysts Copper and aluminium dislocated from fundamentals DRC–Democratic Republic of theCongo Copper and aluminium fundamentals are strong, but several indicators suggest priceshave dislocated from“fair”value. Factoring in also somewhat weaker demand aroundChinese New Year, we see a risk that prices are capped near term. That said, we stillforecast deficits in both metals this year and our baseline is that global demand will pick LFP–lithium iron phosphate ESS–Energy storage system Mwmt–million wet metric tonnes Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise tosignificant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. Governments call the shots in batterymetals Update on price forecasts Going into 2026, we have been bullish aluminium, copper, gold and silver. Yet, after therecent rallies, prices have hit our targets much earlier than we had anticipated. Hence, aluminiumandcoppermarket deficits in 2026 and, while prices could be capped intospring, we look towards summer when demand should rebound in the US, Europe andChina, which could bring more upside. Similarly, while we acknowledge increaseduncertainty over the change in Fed leadership, we also see a pathway forgoldto hit$6,000/oz.Silveris a bit trickier and we are concerned that prices could pull back BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Meanwhile, the fundamental dynamics driving battery materials have changed:nickel,lithium and cobaltall have dominant producing and consuming countries. The former would like to see higher prices, but not at levels that put too much pressure on the latter.Hence, those raw materials should trade in a range with a midpoint likely above recent Finally, Indonesia’s production cuts should help reducethermal coalsurpluses, givingsome price support. However,iron oreoversupplies are increasing, keeping the pressureon prices. Meanwhile, the regionalisation ofsteelmarkets continues, so consumers will Governments set floor and ceiling for battery metals Lithium: from boom-bust to range-bound Lithium has gone through a series of bull and bear markets in relatively short succession