流动秀：从AI狂热到AI退潮及其他重大轮动

AI-awe to AI-poor&otherGreat Rotations Scores on the Doors: YTD gold 13.4%, oil 9.5%, intl stocks 8.7%, commods 8.1%, govtbonds 1.2%, IG 1.2%, HY 1.2%, cash 0.4%, US stocks -0.2%, US$ -1.4%, bitcoin -25.0%.Zeitgeist:“Not even AI’s best LLM could unravel the raw emotions of this tape.” Tale of the Tape: Trump approval on Wall St at all-time highs, on Main St at new lows(42.1%, on inflation 36.4%); no Trump bump after Feb 24thState of the Union showpiecefor affordability policy pivot to win midterms…more aggressive policies (US-Japan FXdeal at Mar 19thsummit to use Japan capital to cap UST yields, big April Trump-Xi trade deal to cut tariffs, UBI via YCC to soothe AI labor market disruption for Gen Z.The Price is Right: insurance brokers Mon, wealth advisors Tues, real estate servicesWed, logistics Thurs…wildfire AI disruption; note 1stAI-disrupted sector was India tech Q1’25 (INFO, TCS), and no bid yet; most obvious catalyst to reverse significantly the“AI-awe to AI-poor”rotation…an AI hyperscaler announcing a capex cut. TheBiggest Picture: Japan yen & Nikkei price correlation just flipped positive 1sttime since 2005 (Chart 2)…nothing says“secular bull”more than FX up, stocks up (see Japan'82-'90, Germany '85-'95, China '00-'08); but short-term Japan yen adds to crypto, silver,PE, software, energy, unwind pain; can’t have disorderly yen surge now (i.e., JPY below145)…hits global liquidity & has always coincided with global deleveraging. More on page 2… Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise tosignificant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take Weekly Flows: $46.3 to stocks (massive BTD), $25.4bn to bonds (decent), $14.5bn tocash, $3.4bn to gold (no panic selling), $0.1bn to crypto. Flows to Know: •US Treasuries: largest inflow in 7 weeks ($4.1bn); •TIPS: biggest weekly inflow since Apr’25 ($1.2bn); •Korean equities: record 4-week inflow ($14.3bn - since 2002); Europe equities: biggest 2-week inflow since May’25 ($6.9bn);India equities: biggest inflow since Jul’25 ($0.2bn);US small cap: biggest inflow in 8 weeks ($1.9bn); Tech: biggest 3-week inflow since Nov’25 ($14.5bn); gold = 0.6%; first week of Feb saw biggest weekly outflow from both cash and Treasurynotes (2-10 year duration) in past 14 years; in past 4 weeks, private clients buying municipal bonds, IG bonds, Japan equity ETFs, selling REITs, HY bonds, staples ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: down to 9.4 from 9.6 on lighter inflows to global equity & EM debt funds, wider financial subordinated debt spreads (AT1s), hedge funds adding tooil shorts & VIX longs; BofA Bull & Bear Indicator contrarian“sell signal”for risk assets On FMS Positioning: BofA Jan Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS) was most bullish survey of investor sentiment since Jul'21; Feb FMS to be released on 17thand following metrics would signal that“excess bull”positioning has moderated sufficiently to pushBofA Bull & Bear Indicator back toward 8, thus ending“sell signal”…Big jump rise in cash level from record low 3.2% to 3.8% or above; Short-covering in bonds from net 35% UW (biggest UW since Sep'22) to an UW of 25% or less; •Short-covering in consumer staples from net 30% UW (biggest UW since Feb'14) toan UW of 10% or less. On FMS Positioning: watch for extreme sector positions to signal contrarian buys/sells, eg. staples UW in Jan (biggest since Feb’14) = buy, banks OW in Dec’25 (biggest since Jan’22) = sell, sharp unwind in pharma OW in Aug’25 (smallest since Jan’18) = buy, techUW in Apr’25 (biggest since Nov’22) = buy…On Price: since Oct 29thFed rate cut at asset price highs and despite Trump policy pivot to affordability after Nov 5thNY/NJ/VA election losses…beneficiaries = Main Stinflationary boom exposure…silver 56%, KOSPI 34%, Bovespa 30%, materials 25%,energy 20%, US regional banks 19%, US small-cap value 11%, SOX 10%, industrialmetals 8%…laggards Wall St wealth boom exposure…Magnificent 7 -8%,“Bro Bubble” index -15% (PLTR, ARKK, COIN…), Bitcoin -41%, plus the disrupted (software -30%); run- it-hot trades always run-out-of-steam once positions adjust; but big profit & policyevents (breakdown in XLF bank stocks triggers jump in credit spreads, hyperscaler capexcuts, massive tariff reduction at Xi-Trump April summit) needed for big reversal of the’26 Main St>Wall St, manufacturing>services rotations. On Bonds: zero-coupon bonds ZROZ up 4% YTD, Nasdaq 100 QQQ -2%; still thinkbigunwind levels hold (big tech XLK $133, bitcoin 58k, gold $4550/oz) but if bonds rallymore after strong payroll & tomorrow’s CPI…those levels tested again, especially nowbig fina