超越二元：资本流动管理的政策强度度量（英）2026

Beyond Binary: A Policy-Intensity Measure ofCapital Flow Management Wenjie Li WP/26/21 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2026FEB IMF Working Paper Strategy Policy and Review Department Beyond Binary: A Policy-Intensity Measure of Capital Flow ManagementPrepared byWenjie Li Authorized for distribution byMichele RutaFebruary2026 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper introduces theFinOpenindex, a novel measure of capital flow management for 193countries from 1996 to 2022. Using information from the IMF’sAnnual Report on Exchange Arrangements andExchange Restrictions(AREAER), the index is constructed by estimating the level of openness annually andupdating it daily by incorporating changes in capital flow management measures (CFMs). Therefore, this indexgoes beyond the traditional indexes that rely on binary labelsthat only distinguish between full capitalopenness and any control. Within the range of [0, 1], theFinOpenindex quantifies granular policy intensity andallows comparisons across countries (with higher values indicate greater capital openness). In addition, thedataset extends back to 1960 for 42 emerging and developing countries, and the methodology can be appliedto construct long-term series for other countries. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Wenjie Li (2026).Beyond Binary: A Policy-Intensity Measure of Capital FlowManagement.IMF Working Paper 26/[XX]. Beyond Binary: A Policy-IntensityMeasure of Capital FlowManagement Prepared byWenjie Li1 Beyond Binary: A Policy-Intensity Measureof Capital Flow Management Wenjie LiInternational Monetary Fund February 2, 2026 Abstract This paper introduces the FinOpen index, a novel measure of capital flow manage-ment for 193 countries from 1996 to 2022. Using information from the IMFsAnnualReport on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions(AREAER), theindex is constructed by estimating the level of openness annually and updatingit daily by incorporating changes in capital flow management measures (CFMs).Therefore, this index goes beyond the traditional indexes that rely on binary labelsthat only distinguish between full capital openness and any control.Within therange of [0, 1], the FinOpen index quantifies granular policy intensity and allowscomparisons across countries (with higher values indicate greater capital openness).In addition, the dataset extends back to 1960 for 42 emerging and developing coun-tries, and the methodology can be applied to construct long-term series for othercountries. JEL Classification:F32, F38, F41.Keywords:Capital flows management measures, capital control, capital openness. 1Introduction The effects of international capital flows on domestic economies are widely acknowledgedto be complex. Cross-border investments can bring high returns and risk diversification,but the volatility of such flows also poses risks to economic stability (Montiel 2020, Ostryet al. 2012). These risks are especially pronounced in emerging and developing economies(EMDEs), which lack the “safe-haven” status of dominant-currency countries and thusfind it harder to attract foreign capital during downturns. This underscores the importance of evaluating the effectiveness of capital flow man-agement measures (CFMs) in mitigating such risks.1However, despite extensive debate,empirical research has not reached consensus on the role of CFMs (Magud et al. 2011,¨Otker et al. 2000).A key reason lies in policy measurement.Unlike monetary policy,which can be proxied by a policy rate (despite its broader toolkit in recent years), CFMsvary across several dimensions: changing directions (i.e., easing or tightening), flow res-idency (i.e., nonresidents and residents), directions of flows (i.e., inflows and outflows),categories of flows (i.e., direct, portfolio and other investments) as well as measure types(i.e., administrative approval, price, quantity and foreign exchange). This complexity hasmade it difficult to build a standardized index. To address this gap, I construct a new measure of CFMs, the FinOpen index, whichcaptures granular changes in policy intensity. The main data source is the IMF’sAnnualReport on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions(AREAER). This re-port contains narrative descriptions of external sector regulations and records policymeasures with enforcement dates. AREAER also provides binary labels for categories ofcapital transactions (“yes” for full openness and “no” for any control). Before explainingthe constructi