北非：连接各大洲，创造机遇（英）2026

MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA DEPARTMENT North Africa: ConnectingContinents, CreatingOpportunities Prepared by Brett Rayner, Charalambos Tsangarides, Tsendsuren Batsuuri,Hannah Brown, Rana Fayez, Nadia Mounir, Dirk Muir, Gian Plebani,Sahra Sakha, and Veronique Salins. MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA DEPARTMENT DEPARTMENTAL PAPER North Africa: ConnectingContinents, CreatingOpportunities Prepared by Brett Rayner, Charalambos Tsangarides, Tsendsuren Batsuuri, Hannah Brown,Rana Fayez, Nadia Mounir, Dirk Muir, Gian Plebani, Sahra Sakha, and Veronique Salins. Cataloging-in-Publication DataIMF Library Names: Rayner, Bret, author. | Tsangarides, Charalambos G., author. | Batsuuri, Tsendsuren, author. |Brown, Hannah Claire, author. | Fayez, Rana, author. | Mounir, Nadia, author. | Muir, Dirk, author. |Plebani, Gian, author. | Sakha, Sahra, author. | Salins, Veronique, author. | International Monetary Fund,publisher. Title: North Africa : connecting continents, creating opportunities / Brett Rayner, Charalambos Tsangarides,Tsendsuren Batsuuri, Hannah Brown, Rana Fayez, Nadia Mounir, Dirk Muir, Gian Plebani, Sahra Sakha,and Veronique Salins. Other titles: Connecting continents, creating opportunities. | Departmental paper. International Monetary Fund.Middle East and Central Asia Department. Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2026.| Includes bibliographical references.Identifiers: ISBN: Subjects: LCSH: Africa, North— Economic conditions. | Africa, North— Commerce. | International trade.Classification: LCC HC805.R3 2026 Acknowledgments This departmental paper was prepared under the general guidance of Jihad Azour and Taline Koranchelian. Theteam was led by Brett Rayner and Charalambos Tsangarides and comprised Hannah Brown, Rana Fayez,Nadia Mounir, Gian Plebani, Sahra Sakha, and Veronique Salins from the Middle East and Central AsiaDepartment and Tsendsuren Batsuuri and Dirk Muir from the Research Department. The team would like tothank Andrea Presbitero and Gregor Schwerhoff (Research Department) for their invaluable comments andcontributions. The authors are grateful to Sofia Cerna Rubinstein and Rodrigo Huguet (Middle East and CentralAsia Department) for production assistance, Vaishnavi Rupavatharam and Karman Singh (Middle East andCentral Asia Department) for research assistance, and Nasim Amini Abbas (Communications Department) foroverseeing the publication process. The team would also like to acknowledge the helpful comments of IMFdepartments and Executive Director offices. The Departmental Paper Series presents research by IMF staff on issues of broad regional or cross-countryinterest. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent theviews of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. Publication orders may be placed online or through the mail:International Monetary Fund, Publication ServicesP.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, USAT. +(1) 202.623.7430publications@IMF.orgIMFbookstore.orgelibrary.IMF.org Contents Executive Summary ..............................................................................................................................................4 Chapter 1: Introduction—Connecting Continents, Creating Opportunities....................................................5 Chapter 2: The State of Economic Linkages—Opportunities and Risks ........................................................8 A. Limited Trade Links—with Europe Predominant ...........................................................................................8B. Investment Flows—Untapped Potential ......................................................................................................12C. Landscape of Regional Cooperation—Momentum Building .......................................................................14D. Toward Stronger Economic Linkages—Challenges Remain ......................................................................15 Chapter 3: Unlocking the Gains from Stronger Linkages—Gravity Models .................................................22 A. Empirical Strategy—Quantifying the Effect of Reforms...............................................................................22B. Trade Liberalization—A Key to Higher Growth and Value Added...............................................................23C. Additional Reforms to Maximize the Benefits of Stronger Linkages ...........................................................27D. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations ................................................................................................30 Annex 3.1. Structural Trade Gravity Models................................................................................................31 Annex 3.2. Structural Trade Gravity Models—Backward Participation ....................................................32 Chapter 4: Unlocking the Gains from Stronger Linkages—Dynamic General Equilib