乌干达：融资后评估讨论新闻稿；员工报告（英）

POST-FINANCING ASSESSMENT DISCUSSIONS—PRESSRELEASE;ANDSTAFF REPORT In the context of the Post-Financing Assessment Discussions, the following documentshave been released and are included in this package: •APress Release. •TheStaff Reportprepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’sconsideration on a lapse-of-time basis, following discussions that ended onNovember 7, 2025, with the officials ofUganda on economic developments andpolicies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staffreport was completed on December 18, 2025. •ADebt Sustainability Analysisprepared by staffs of the World Bank and the IMF. TheIMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information andpremature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports andother documents. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. IMF Executive Board Concludes the 2025 Post-FinancingAssessment with Uganda FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE •Uganda’s post-pandemic economic performance has been robust, supported by broad-based growth and contained inflation. Foreign exchange reserves rose significantly in 2025,reflecting a favorable external environment, including strong coffee exports and portfolioinflows. •Uganda’s capacity to repay the Fund is assessed as adequate, though subject to risks frompotential portfolio outflows, commodity price shocks and further delays related to the oilproject. •The authorities recognized the need for fiscal adjustment and reaffirmed their commitmentto vigilant monetary policy and exchange rate flexibility, to safeguard macroeconomicstability and repayment capacity. Washington DC, January, 23, 2026:On January, 12, 2026the Executive Board of theInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Post-Financing Assessment (PFA) withUganda1and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis.2The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared forthe PFA discussions. Uganda has navigated the post-pandemic environment relatively well, though progress inrebuilding durable fiscal space has been limited. Real GDP growth rose to 6.3 percent inFY24/25, inflation stabilized below 4 percent, and the estimated current account deficitnarrowed to 6.1 percent of GDP, supported by strong coffee exports. Foreign exchangereserves increased to over three months of import coverage by October 2025, partly reflectingstrong portfolio inflows in 2025. However, the overall budget deficit widened to 6 percent ofGDP in FY24/25 from 4.7 percent in FY23/24, and public debt reached 52.4 percent of GDP. Uganda’s capacity to repay the IMF is assessed as adequate, though subject to risks. In adownside scenario involving large portfolio outflows, adverse terms-of-trade shocks, andfurther delays in the oil project, repayment indicators would weaken but remain withinadequate levels. Looking ahead, macroeconomic conditions are expected to remain favorable with anadditional boost from oil production, which is projected to start in late 2026. The authoritiesrecognized the need for fiscal adjustment and reaffirmed their commitment to vigilantmonetary policy and exchange rate flexibility, to safeguard macroeconomic stability andrepayment capacity. Executive Board Assessment In concluding the PFA with Uganda, Executive Directors endorsed staff’s appraisal, as follows: Uganda’s robust macroeconomic performance continued, supported by strong domesticdemand, favorable external conditions, and prudent monetary policy.Real GDP growthaccelerated to 6.3 percent in FY2024/25, inflation remained contained, and the currentaccount deficit narrowed significantly. Foreign exchange reserves increased, and investorsentiment improved, reflecting high real returns and Uganda’s relative stability in a volatileregional environment. However, fiscal vulnerabilities are on the rise due to elevated overalldeficits and a high debt servicing burden. While public debt remains sustainable, it faces risksfrom domestic financing pressures and weaknesses in the budgetary process. Staff assesses Uganda’s capacity to repay the Fund as adequate under both baseline anddownside scenarios. Repayment indicators under the baseline scenario remain below medianthresholds for ECF countries. Risks to repayment capacity arise from potential portfoliooutflows, commodity price shocks, further delays in oil production, and governanceweaknesses. A downside scenario indicates that, even under significant external anddomestic shocks, Uganda’s repayment position would remain manageable, although policybuffers would come under strain. Staff recommends a multi-pronged policy approach to safeguard macroeconomic stability and