超越石油：加速出口多样化以实现可持续增长 - 阿曼

Beyond Oil: AcceleratingExport Diversification forSustainable Growth-Oman Mohamed Belkhir, Takako Iwaki, and Nareg Mesrobian SIP/2026/008 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on December 11, 2025. This paper isalso published separately as IMF Country Report No 26/005. 2026FEB IMF Selected Issues Paper Middle East and Central Asia Department Beyond Oil: Accelerating Export Diversification for Sustainable Growth- Oman Prepared by Mohamed Belkhir, Takako Iwaki, and Nareg Mesrobian* Authorized for distribution by Abdullah AlHassanFebruary2026 IMF Selected IssuesPapersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on December 11, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country ReportNo 26/005. ABSTRACT:Since oil was discovered in the 1960s, Oman’s economy and living standards have improvedsignificantly. Yet, it has also created a vulnerable economic structure, with economic growth and external andfiscal balances being highly sensitive to oil price swings. While current diversification efforts have laid importantgroundwork, further progress is needed to ensure economic resilience to oil price volatility. Building acompetitive nonhydrocarbon export sector is essential, as nonhydrocarbon output consists primarily of non-tradables, particularly of low-added value sectors requiring low-skilled labor, with limited productivity gains,foreign currency receipts, and employment potential. Accelerating structural reforms alongside well-targetedstate support will be key to enhance product sophistication and deepen export diversification beyond oil andgas. In particular, our empirical analysis indicates that improvements in government effectiveness and logisticsperformance could significantly raise nonhydrocarbon exports. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Belkhir, Mohamed, Takako Iwaki, and Nareg Mesrobian. 2026. Beyond Oil:Accelerating Export Diversification for Sustainable Growth—Oman. IMF Selected Issues Paper No. 26/008.International Monetary Fund. Beyond Oil: Accelerating ExportDiversification for SustainableGrowth Oman Prepared by Mohamed Belkhir, Takako Iwaki, and NaregMesrobian A.Context 1.Oman is pursuing a comprehensive economic transformation anchored inOmanVision 2040.The Visionaims to foster a competitive, diversified, and sustainable economy, underpinned by enhancedhuman capital and private sector development.Itenvisions a gradual shift away from reliance onhydrocarbons by promoting nonhydrocarbon sectors,such as manufacturing, logistics, tourism, and renewableenergy. To support this transition, the authorities are implementing wide-ranging structural reforms, includingefforts to improve the business environment, strengthen fiscal sustainability, deepencapital markets, andupgrade education and workforce skills.TheVision also emphasizesgoodgovernance, environmentalsustainability, and digital transformation as key enablers of long-term growth.These reforms are intendedtoenhanceeconomic resilience, createhigh-quality jobs for Oman’s citizens, and ensurefiscal and externalsustainability,amid growinguncertainty in globaloil markets. 2.Economic diversification is advancing but more remains to be done to strengthen theeconomy’s resilience to oil price volatility(Figure 1).Oman has particularly made progress in advancingoutput diversification, with nonhydrocarbon activities now accounting fornearly70 percent of total GDP.However, fiscal revenues remain heavily dependent on hydrocarbon receipts—accounting for around 80percent of the totalrevenue—despite efforts to broaden the revenue base.This leavesthe fiscal positionhighly sensitive to oil price fluctuations.Moreover, nonhydrocarbon growth continues to be influenced by oilmarket cycles, underscoring the broader economy’s continued dependence on hydrocarbons.The export baseremains narrowly concentrated in hydrocarbon products, rendering the external position vulnerable toshifts inoil prices. 3.This paper proposes policy optionsto accelerateOman’stransition to a more sustainableandresilienteconomic model.With hydrocarbon reserves being limited and uncertaintysurroundingfuture oilprices, it is critical to foster the emergence of a competitive and diversified tradables sector.Currently,nonhydrocarbon activities concentrate primarily in low-added-value,non-tradablesectors that rely onlow-skilled labor, while most manufacturingproducts are imported. Asustained decline in hydrocarbon revenues would weigh down on growth, as well as toexternal and fiscalpositions.Strengthening nonhydrocarbontradables—manufacturingand tradable services—isessential to broaden the export base,generate foreigncurrency earnings,improve productivity, and create high-quality jobs forOman’sgrowinglabor f