超越石油：加速出口多样化以实现可持续增长-阿曼

Beyond Oil: AcceleratingExport Diversification for Mohamed Belkhir, Takako Iwaki, and Nareg Mesrobian SIP/2026/008 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available at 2026FEB IMF Selected Issues Paper Middle East and Central Asia Department Beyond Oil: Accelerating Export Diversification for Sustainable Growth- Oman IMF Selected IssuesPapersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it was ABSTRACT:Since oil was discovered in the 1960s, Oman’s economy and living standards have improvedsignificantly. Yet, it has also created a vulnerable economic structure, with economic growth and external andfiscal balances being highly sensitive to oil price swings. While current diversification efforts have laid importantgroundwork, further progress is needed to ensure economic resilience to oil price volatility. Building acompetitive nonhydrocarbon export sector is essential, as nonhydrocarbon output consists primarily of non- RECOMMENDED CITATION:Belkhir, Mohamed, Takako Iwaki, and Nareg Mesrobian. 2026. Beyond Oil:Accelerating Export Diversification for Sustainable Growth—Oman. IMF Selected Issues Paper No. 26/008. SELECTED ISSUESPAPERS Beyond Oil: Accelerating ExportDiversification for Sustainable Oman Prepared by Mohamed Belkhir, Takako Iwaki, and Nareg A.Context 1.Oman is pursuing a comprehensive economic transformation anchored inOmanVision 2040. The Visionaims to foster a competitive, diversified, and sustainable economy, underpinned by enhancedhuman capital and private sector development.Itenvisions a gradual shift away from reliance onhydrocarbons by promoting nonhydrocarbon sectors,such as manufacturing, logistics, tourism, and renewableenergy. To support this transition, the authorities are implementing wide-ranging structural reforms, including 2.Economic diversification is advancing but more remains to be done to strengthen theeconomy’s resilience to oil price volatility(Figure 1).Oman has particularly made progress in advancingoutput diversification, with nonhydrocarbon activities now accounting fornearly70 percent of total GDP.However, fiscal revenues remain heavily dependent on hydrocarbon receipts—accounting for around 80 3.This paper proposes policy optionsto accelerateOman’stransition to a more sustainableandresilienteconomic model.With hydrocarbon reserves being limited and uncertaintysurroundingfuture oilprices, it is critical to foster the emergence of a competitive and diversified tradables sector.Currently, would weigh down on growth, as well as toexternal and fiscalpositions.Strengthening nonhydrocarbontradables—manufacturingand tradable services—isessential to broaden the export base,generate foreigncurrency earnings,improve productivity, and create high-quality jobs forOman’sgrowinglabor force. 4.This paperis structured as follows:Section B provides an overview ofOman’s economicstructure, with a focus on export diversification. Section C reviews thepolicies pursuedthusfar toupgradetechnologically and diversifytheexport base.Section D draws lessons fromcountries that have succeeded in B.Oman’s Economic and Export Structure 5.Oman’s economic diversification progress is evident, but it still behind top performers in theGCC and globally.According to theGlobalEconomic Diversification Index (EDI), which measuresdiversification along several dimensions—including output structure, trade patterns, and government 6.Non-tradables continue to dominate Oman's nonhydrocarbon economy. While the share ofnonhydrocarbon activities rose from about 55 percent in 2005 to nearly 70 percent in 2024,nonhydrocarbonoutput remains concentrated in non-tradable sectors. In 2024, construction, public administration, education,and healthcare together accounted for approximately 40 percent of nonhydrocarbon GDP, whilemanufacturing—a key tradable and high-productivity sector—contributed only 8 percent (Figure 2).1In Oman continues to have one of the most concentrated export structures among GCC 7. countries and global peers.The limited size of its tradable nonhydrocarbon sectors is reflected in a narrowexport base.UNCTAD’s Export Product Concentration Index suggests that, notwithstanding some progressmade overthepast two decades, Oman’s exports remain notably concentrated, exceeded only by Kuwait and 8.Manufacturingsectoris predominantly concentrated in oil-related industries and metalproduction, limiting itsrole inexport diversification and sophistication.Refined petroleum, chemicals, manufacturing base constrains Oman’s ability to expand beyond hydrocarbons-linked exports. By way ofcomparison, Singapore’s exports are dominated by highly complex products, with electronics andmachinery 9.Economic complexity remains low.The Economic Complexity Index (ECI), which measures