市场洞察中国

CHINA January 2011 This Market Insight is one of an ongoing series of market profiles produced by the Market Intelligence Group [MIG] ofthe European Travel Commission [ETC]. New market profiles will be added to the series and updated at regular The members of the MIG comprise the Research Directors of the 35 National Tourist Offices (NTOs) that are membersof ETC. The group regularly commissions and publishes market intelligence studies, handbooks on methodologiesand best practice, and facilitates the exchange of European tourism statistics on the ‘TourMIS’ web platform. More information on ETC’s programme of market intelligence activities - including links to studies and sources ofEuropean tourism statistics - can be found on the organisation’s corporate website:http://www.etc-corporate.org. OVERVIEW •After bursting onto the international tourism stage in the 1990s, China has been one of the world’s fastest-growing outbound travel markets. This growth has been a little erratic in recent years, but in 2010 the •In 1995, the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) predicted that China would generate 100 mn trips a yearby 2020, making it the fourth largest market in the world. It is well on course to reach that target. Indeed,preliminary estimates suggest that it overtook the UK in 2010 to become the third largest source countryin terms of spending on travel abroad – US$48 bn. In terms of outbound trip volume, it may also have However, all the enthusiasm about China’s potential as an outbound market overlooks the fact that thevast majority of outbound trips (around 70%) are really domestic – for the Chinese Special Administrative •Official data on outbound travel – at least in terms of details – has recently been scarce. This makes itdifficult to determine Europe’s share of China’s outbound trip volume, especially since official outbound The leading European destinations are Russia (including Russia’s Far East), France, Germany and Italy.Estimates suggest that trips to Europe fell in 2009 but increased again in 2010 (but by less than the overall •The European tourism industry’s focus in recent years has been on the Chinese group leisure market,following the granting of Approved Destination Status (ADS). However, this has delivered disappointingresults due to the proliferation of low-priced, low-yield, multi-destination tours. Business, incentive and COUNTRY PROFILE Currency •The yuan/renminbi was effectively pegged to the US dollar at Rmb8.28 = US$1.00 until July 2005 and againat about Rmb6.83 = US$1.00 in June 2008 until July 2010. The government then reverted to the 'managedfloating exchange rate regime’ (based on an unspecified basket of currencies with daily revisions to the •Many other world currencies fluctuated strongly against the US dollar, and consequently against therenminbi, in the aftermath of the world financial crisis, and this volatility continued through 2010. The eurohas been up and down against the renminbi by 25% since September 2008, within a range of Rmb8.17 to Population •1,354 mn in 2010 – 141 people per km2. •The population is now growing by about 0.6% a year. The annual birth rate has fallen to 13.7 births per1,000, while the death rate has fallen much more steeply to 7.3 per 1,000. The government introduced alaw in 1980 essentially setting a limit of one child per family (with complications in the detailed rules),which has contained the growth in the total population but is causing it to age very rapidly. The population •The urban population was estimated at 42% of the total in 2007. The household registration ('hukou')system is being gradually relaxed, which is very slowly improving the legal and economic situation of the •There are at least 60 cities in China with populations of over 1 mn. Beijing has 10 mn, Shanghai 14 mn andGuangzhou/Shenzhen 14 mn in 2010. •The populations of the Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong regions – the main international tourismgenerating regions – are estimated at 16 mn, 19 mn and 96 mn, respectively. Age •More simply, the population may be broken down as follows: 0-24 years: 37%; 25-59 years: 51%; over 60:17%. This compares with world averages of 45%, 35% and 11%. •Over the next ten years, the population aged 0-24 is expected to fall by 10%, while the 25-59 year-old agegroup will increase by 8% and those over 60 will increase by 44%. Ancestry & Migration •92% of the total population is reported to be Han Chinese.•Various sources suggest that there may be 40 mn 'overseas Chinese' – people of Chinese origin livingoutside 'Greater China' (China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan). This figure includes 31 mn in Asia, 6 mnin the Americas and 2 mn in Europe. In Europe, there are about 500,000 in Russia, 500,000 in the UK,250,000 in France, 150,000 in Italy, 125,000 in Spain, 110,000 in the Netherlands and 100,000 in Germany. Language & Religion •The official language in China is Putonghua or Mandarin ('Standard Chinese'), but most people also