了解长途旅行市场的增长潜力
UNDERSTANDING GROWTHPOTENTIAL FROM LONG-HAULTRAVEL MARKETS A REPORT FOR THE EUROPEANTRAVEL COMMISSION byTourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company) Brussels, August 2016ETC Market Intelligence Report Copyright © 2016 European Travel Commission UNDERSTANDING GROWTH POTENTIAL FROM LONG-HAUL TRAVEL MARKETS All rights reserved. The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the source is given accuratelyand clearly. Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted for own or internal use only. While weencourage distribution via publicly accessible websites, this should be done via a link to ETC'scorporate website,www.etc-corporate.org, referring visitors to the Market Research section. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply theexpression of any opinions whatsoever on the part of the Executive Unit of the European TravelCommission. Data sources: This report includes data from the TourMIS database (http://www.tourmis.info),UNWTO and national statistical agencies. Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics and are for interpretation byusers according to their needs. ISBN No: 978-92-95107-07-6 This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company)on behalf of the European Travel Commission (ETC) co-funded by the European Union Cover: Creative work of business teamImage ID: 362816639Copyright: Shutterstock / Sergey Nivens TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword ............................................................................................................. 41. Demand for European Destinations ................................................................ 51.1 Growth in Global Travel Demand............................................................. 51.2 European Destinations............................................................................. 61.3 Long-Haul Markets of Interest.................................................................. 61.4 Portfolio Analysis...................................................................................... 72. Europe............................................................................................................. 92.1 Historic Visits Growth: 2010-15................................................................ 92.2 Historic Overnights Growth: 2010-15..................................................... 112.3 Expected Visits Growth: 2015-20........................................................... 132.4 Expected Nights Growth: 2015-20 ......................................................... 152.5 Russia Outlook & Scenarios .................................................................. 183. Regions of Europe ........................................................................................ 213.1 EU28 ...................................................................................................... 213.2 Northern Europe..................................................................................... 233.3 Central & Eastern Europe ...................................................................... 253.4 Western Europe ..................................................................................... 273.5 Southern & Mediterranean Europe ........................................................ 304. Key Source Markets...................................................................................... 334.1 Established Markets............................................................................... 334.2 Other Large Markets .............................................................................. 344.3 Growth Markets...................................................................................... 344.4 Underperforming Markets ...................................................................... 35Annex 1.............................................................................................................36Annex 2.............................................................................................................38 FOREWORD It is widely acknowledged that tourism is one of the world’s most dynamiceconomic sectors offering multiple opportunities for growth and development.Europe, as the world’s number 1 tourist destination, has seen growing visitornumbers for the past six years marked by a record figure of more than 600million tourist arrivals in 2015. While these growth trends have been largelyabove the region’s forecast long-term trend of +2.7% (2010-2020)1, newplayers have entered the global travel market spearheaded by fast-emergingdestinations in Asia & the Pacific. Europe’s market shareis therefore expected to decline in the decade to come.European destinations acknowledge the need to remain competitive in a sectorthat is swiftly adapting to the diverse needs of travellers from both establishedand emerging markets. A significant measure in this effort is the div
