Test: Federal and state budget cuts lead to Medi-Cal losses

Miranda DietzHealth Care Program Director February 11, 2026 Up to 3 million Californians will loseMedi-Cal by 2028 Policies with major Medi-Cal enrollment impacts 2025-26 State Budget H.R.1 Work requirements for “new adult” groupMore frequent eligibility checks for “newadult” group Enrollment freeze for undocumentedadults$30 monthly premiums for adults with The state could protect coverage for anestimated 570,000 Californians The majority will lose coverage because of: ImmigrationStatus RedTape •Refugees, asylees•Certain other lawfully presentimmigrants •Paperwork requirements makeeligible adults more likely to lose •Especially true for adults over 50•Undocumented Californians Source: Nari Rhee, “Medicaid Cuts—Including Work Documentation Requirements—Harm Older Adults,” UC BerkeleyLabor Center, June 23, 2025. Most enrollees are already working orshouldbe exempt Work status andbarriers to work amongMedi-Cal adults, 2023 What will happen when they lose Medi-Cal? Covered California /private coverage at full Job-Based Coverage Uninsured Reduced access to careReduced financial security Annual Premium: $1,303Deductible: $1,620Copay: $28 / visit Annual Premium: $9,528Deductible: $5,200Copay: $50 / visit Notes and Sources: Job-based premium is average employee cost for single coverage from Rae et al. “California HealthBenefits Survey 2025.” Covered CA cost is average gross premium for a silver plan in 2025; copay and deductible from2026Patient-Centered Benefit Designs. Medi-Cal matters Medicaid expansion is associated with:•Improved access to care •Increased utilization of primary and preventive services•Reduced use of Emergency Department for non-emergent and primary caretreatable visits •Reduced mortality, improved health outcomes•Improved affordability and financial security for low-income households•More predictable revenues for providers, less uncompensated care•Improved ability to obtain and maintain employment Sources: Guth & Ammula, “Building on the Evidence Base: Studies on the Effects of Medicaid Expansion, February 2020 toMarch 2021” KFF 2021, and Guth, Garfield, & Rudowitz, “The Effects of Medicaid Expansion under the ACA: Studies fromJanuary 2014 to January 2020,” KFF 2020. Contact Miranda DietzHealth Care Program DirectorUC Berkeley Labor Center miranda.dietz@berkeley.eduhttps://laborcenter.berkeley.edu/health-care/