欧洲长途旅行：复苏预期

LONG-HAUL TRAVEL TO EUROPE Recovery expectations March, 2023 EUROPEAN TOURISM RECOVERY •European travel recovery began in earnest in 2022 andinternational arrivals increased to almost 80% of 2019levels for the year on average. An even stronger performance was observed in the second half of 2022,outpacing restored capacity.•International travel to Europe is forecast to achieve pre-pandemic levels in 2025.•Short-haul travel has driven the recovery to date, but high inflation across European economies, includingrising travel costs, and the associated economic slowdown are a major challenge for continued rebound. InternationalTourist Arrivals by World Region% difference from same month in 2019, 3mma (figures in brackets are 3 months to Dec) •Returning long-haul travel is essential for complete recovery in visitor arrivals, nights, spend and associatedeconomic benefits. •Long-haul visitors accounted for a quarter of the international nights spent in Europe prior to the pandemic.This contribution rose from less than a 20% share over the prior ten years reflecting the rising strength of •The share of nights (and spend) from long haul markets exceeds the proportion of visits from these marketsdue to the higher length of stay, and higher associated spend per trip from these important markets. •Tourism Economics expect the share of travel from long-haul markets to recover over the medium-term tothese pre-pandemic peaks as restrictions are now fully eased and confidence in travel to less familiar places •In the baseline outlook, long-haul travel is expected to regain pre-pandemic peaks more slowly than short-haul demand, but from a lower current starting point, and rapid recovery is anticipated. RECOVERY EXPECTATIONS IN KEY LONG-HAUL MARKETS •US remains the largest long-haul market and is leading the way in recovery with rapid rebound to date,supported by the strength of the US dollar. In 2019, the US accounted for almost one quarter of all European •Travel from the US to Europe is expected to regain over 80% pre-pandemic levels in 2023, including strongerrecovery in some Western and Northern European destinations. Bookings for travel to Eastern Europeremain weak related to the war in Ukraine.•2019 pre-pandemic levels of travel from the US is anticipated to be regained during 2024. •Gradual recovery is likely from China based on forward bookings data, which point to some continueddomestic substitution; and also following the examples of regional markets. Australia and Japan, whichretained closed borders for longer than many other countries, have seen modest growth in recovery.•Travel from China to European destinations is expected to remain 60-70% lower than pre-pandemic levels in2023. In the upside scenario of more rapidly restored capacity and confidence, Chinese travel is expected tobe 50% lower this year than in 2019.•Full recovery to 2019 levels of Chinese travel to Europe is not anticipated until 2026 in the baseline outlook– it will take time to restore long-haul traveller confidence. China accounted for 10% of long-haul travel to •More rapid recovery is anticipated for travel from India and Brazil, following robust growth in travel to manydestinations during 2022. •However, these markets remain relatively small for most European destinations; India provided 5% of long-haul travel to Europe while Brazil accounted for just 3% in 2019. The importance of these markets variesconsiderably by destination and this recovery will be very valuable in some place – for example, Brazilian •Travel from India to Europe is set to be 20-30% lower than 2019 levels in 2023 and should regain pre-pandemic levels during 2025.•Travel from Brazil to Europe is also set to grow to be just 20-30% lower than 2019 levels in 2023 and should Published by theEuropean Travel Commission Rue du Marché aux Herbes, 61, 1000 Brussels, BelgiumWebsite:www.etc-corporate.orgEmail:info@visiteurope.com