作物畜牧业、农业投入、需求和供应工作组报告

Working Group Report on Crop Husbandry,agriCulture Inputs,demand &supply Disclaimer The report covering projections of Demand and Supply of Crops and Livestock Productsand Agriculture Inputs for 2025-26, 2030-31, 2035-36, 2040-41 and 2047-48 has beenprepared by the experts of the Working Group.Every effort has been made to ensure thecorrectness of data/ information used in this report and the sources are mentioned inthe report. NITI Aayog does not accept any legal liability for the accuracy or inferencesdrawn from the material contained therein or for any consequences arising from the useof this material. Working Group Members Table of Contents List of Tables List of Figures List of Appendix Preface Over the past five decades, the technological change supported by investment inirrigation and infrastructure, institutions and incentives have led to significant increasesin food production, ensuring affordable access to food for all. Nevertheless, the needto produce more food remains as urgent as in the past to feed the ever-increasingpopulation, and under the growing resource constraints of land and water, and weatheraberrations. To adequately feed the people in future requires information on the likely demandand supply of different food commodities to devise appropriate strategies and policysupport for their production, distribution, and trade. To generate such information, theNational Institution for Transforming India (NITI) Aayog constituted a Working Groupderiving members from the academic and research organizations, concerned Ministriesof the Central and State Governments, and the commodity-specific associations ofmanufacturers. For smooth functioning of the Working Group, it was divided into three sub-groupsto generate futuristic scenarios on ‘demand and supply of food commodities’; ‘inputdemand’; and ‘agricultural exports’. Each sub-group was headed by an expert, andhad the flexibility to co-opt any expert from outside the constituted Working Group,if required. Dr. Shivendra Kumar Srivastava, Senior Scientist, ICAR-National InstituteofAgricultural Economics and Policy Research,New Delhi,steered the sub-groupon ‘demand and supply’. The sub-group on ‘agricultural exports’ was led by Dr. RakaSaxena,Head,Division of Technology and Sustainable Agriculture,ICAR-NationalInstitute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research, New Delhi. Professor C.S.C.Sekhar from the Institute of Economic Growth, led the sub-group on ‘input demand’.Dr. N. Sivaramane, Principal Scientist, ICAR-National Academy of Agricultural ResearchManagement,Hyderabad,and Dr.Ranjit Kumar Paul,Senior Scientist,ICAR-IndianAgricultural Statistics Research Institute, New Delhi, provided significant support inempirical analysis. I profusely appreciate their hard work and patience, and thank all ofthem for accomplishing this arduous task. TheWorking Group has immensely benefitted from the inputs,information andsuggestions received from several other professionals, especially from the Indian Councilof Agricultural Research, the National Institute of Nutrition, and Fertilizer Association ofIndia. Finally, I place on record my sincere gratitude to Professor Ramesh Chand, Member,NITI Aayog, who provided valuable inputs to the Working Group that helped us refinethe estimates of demand and supply presented in this Report. My special thanks are toDr. Neelam Patel, Senior Advisor, NITI Aayog, Member Secretary to this Working Group,and Dr Tanu Sethi, Senior Associate, NITI Aayog for facilitating the functioning of theWorking Group and arranging meetings and consultations which helped us draw variousinputs required for the Report. Pratap Singh BirthalChairman, Working Group Executive Summary India is envisioned to be in the league of developed nations by 2047, the centenary yearof its Independence. To realize this vision, the economy has to grow at an acceleratedrate of about 8% per year or so, from the 6.34% realized in the recent decade. In 2047,India’s population will cross the 1.6 billion mark, and about half of it is expected to beurbanized. There will be a demographic transition, in terms of age, literacy, and work-force participation. These trends will cause a significant change in dietary patterns andan increase in demand for different food commodities although differentially, dependingon the consumer preferences. Besides the food demand for human consumption, therewill be an increasing demand for food commodities in feed, fuel, and pharmaceuticalindustries. On the other hand, the country has limited land and water resources, which will shrink infuture on account of their competing demand for domestic, energy and industrial uses.Concurrently, the food production system will also come under a confluence of severalbiotic and abiotic pressures, including climate change and infestation of insect pestsand diseases, which may adversely affect crop yields and food supplies in the absenceof remedial measures. Therefore, managing food in