加快食用油增长实现Atmanirbharta目标的途径和策略

NITI Aayog (2024). Pathways and Strategy for Accelerating Growth in Edible Oil towardsGoal of Atmanirbharta Copyright@ NITI Aayog, 2024 ISBN No.: 978-81-967-183-0-5 AUTHORS:Dr. Neelam Patel(Programme Director), NITI AayogDr. Harshika Choudhary(Consultant-I), NITI AayogShri Sambuddha Goswami(Consultant-II), NITI Aayog Pathways and Strategy forAccelerating Growth inEdible Oil towards Goalof Atmanirbharta TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary.............................................................................................................................01 Chapter-I Introduction....................................................................................................................... 23 1.1Background231.2Rationale for Atmanirbharta in Edible Oil241.2.1Minimizing Import Dependency251.2.2Achieving Nutritional Security251.2.3Enhancing Economic Development26 Chapter-II Overview of Global Edible Oil Sector.........................................................................29 2.1Global Area, Production, and Yield Trends of Oilseeds292.2Growth Trends in Oilseeds and Vegetable Oils Production312.3Global Oilseed and Edible Vegetable Oil Scenario312.4Global Vegetable Oil Consumption: Rising Demand and Shifting Preferences332.5India: A Major Player in the Global Edible Oil Market332.6Decadal Yield Comparison of Major Oilseed Producers35 Chapter-III Overview of India’s Edible Oil Sector.......................................................................39 3.1Oilseed Area, Production and Yield: State-Level Dynamics in India393.1.1Oilseed Cultivation: Overall393.1.2Oilseed Cultivation: Kharif Season403.1.3Oilseed Cultivation: Rabi Season413.2Analysing Growth Trends and Instability in Edible Oil Crops Production443.2.1Trend Growth Rate Analysis443.3Instability Analysis of Edible Oils493.4Palm cultivation in India513.5Edible Oils Trade Dynamics: Import and Export523.5.1Imports543.5.2Exports57 4.1.Rising Demand for Edible Oils in India614.1.1Change in Monthly Per Capita Consumption Expenditure Pattern:1999-2000 to 2022-23634.2Edible Oil Demand Projections654.2.1.Static / Household Approach654.2.2.Normative Approach654.2.3.Behaviouristic Approach674.3.Edible Oil Supply Projections to 2030 and 2047754.3.1.National Level Projected Production of Nine Primary Oilseeds (based onaggregated data) by 2030 and 2047764.3.2.National Level Projected Production of Nine Primary Oilseeds individually(based on Crop-wise data) by 2030 and 2047774.3.3.National Level Projected Production of Five Secondary Oils individually (basedon crop-wise data) by 2030 and 2047814.4Edible Oils Demand-Supply Gap Analysis by 2030 and 204783 Chapter-V Strategies and Roadmap to achieve self sufficiency for Atmanirbharta.............89 5.1.Crop Diversification and Retention in Major Oilseed States: Markov Chain Model925.2Crop Retention Rates925.2.1Enhancing India’s Edible Oil Production Through Strategic Retentionof Oilseed Crops945.3Quadrant Strategy for Diversification and Accelerated Growth955.3.1State-wise Quadrant Strategy: Soybean975.4Rabi rice fallow areas: Horizontal expansion of primary Oilseeds1025.5Technological Interventions: Vertical Expansion of Primary Oilseeds1055.5.1Key Hotspot Areas Requiring Urgent Technological Integration1075.5.2Strengthening the Foundation: Seeds and Processing Infrastructure1085.6The Potential of Secondary Edible Oils1095.6.1.PrioritizingPalm Oil: A Strategic Approach1095.7Potential Increase in Edible Oil Production through Strategic Interventions111 Chapter-VI Recommendations and Way forward.......................................................................117 6.1Focus on Area Retention of Oilseeds and diversification1176.2Seed Traceability and Quality Assurance1186.3Adoption of Improved and Advanced Production Technologies1196.4Value Addition through Processing and Refining1196.5Effective Marketing and Robust Market Linkages1196.6Encouraging Public-Private Partnerships1206.7A Dynamic Trade Policy for Balanced Growth1206.8Broadening the Scope of the National Mission on Edible Oils1206.9Strategies for Consumer Preference and Industry1216.10Data-Driven Transformation and Research Investment121 LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1CAGR for Oilseeds and Vegetable Oils (1961- 2022)31Table 2.2India’s position in the global edible oil production market (2022-23)34Table 3.1Top three states in Area and Production of edible oil crops (2017-2022)43Table 3.2Trend growth rate of area, production and productivity of edible/non-edibleoils in India (1980- 2022)45Table 3.3Instability in area, production and yield of edible oil crops in differentperiods between 1980-81 and 2022-23 at all India levels (%)50Table 3.4State-wise cultivated area under oil palm cultivation in India51Table 3.5State-wise production of Crude palm oil production52Table 3.6Total Export of Oilseeds (2019-20 to 2021-22)57Table 3.7Total Export of Vegetable Oils (2019-20 to 2021-22)58Table 3.8Export of Oil meals (201