宏观综述：破冰之举：新任美联储主席为政策叙事增添变数，日元波动令市场不安

Ice breakers A new Fed chair adds to the policy narrative, while yen moveskeep markets on edge. Jennifer Cardilli* +1 212 526 8351jennifer.cardilli@barclays.com The Macro Wrapis your weekly, need-to-know guide to our key macro views, implications for Jill Nentwig* + 1 212 526 5129jillian.nentwig@barclays.com Afterplenty of speculation, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the newFed Chair.Taken at face value, he appears open to a lower fed funds rate paired with a smaller balancesheet, less reliance on data and reduced forward guidance. But we do not expect a suddenchange in policy. Bottom line is markets will focus more on Big Tech earnings and data Sharon Mutiti +44 (0)20 7773 1208sharon.mutiti@barclays.comBarclays, UK In this context, the spotgoldprice has retreated to ~$4,900afterweeks of consistent rise. Webelieve that, in the near term, pull pack and positioning reset are likely but we also assess PatrickCoffey* +44 (0)20 3555 5955patrick.coffey@barclays.comBarclays, UK Our Q4USGDP tracker stands at 1.9% q/q saar. We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 50k inJanuary and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. Consumer confidence dropped toits weakest reading in over a decade albeit the University of Michigan survey increased by No surprise at the JanuaryFOMCmeeting: rates were kept on hold. We expect two cuts thisyear. The 2025 U.S. Census population & migration data were released: collapsingimmigration trends into 2025 suggest lower population growth ahead, which potentiallyreduces the need for additionalhousing supplyover time. TheUS Dollarwas in focus; there is room for the yen to appreciate further which could boost the dollar’s risk premium – still large but not extreme. We expect the yield curve to steepenand recommend 5y5y breakeven longs.A weaker dollar and strong US growth form a bullish cocktail forrisk assets-EMis enjoyingthe dollar tailwind the most. A strongereurois a double-edged sword forEU equities; flows from the US have picked upbut every 10% move in EURUSD, drags earnings down by 2-3%. Another scenario to consider - Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its * This individual is a member of the Product Management Group and is not a Research Analyst All research referenced herein has been previously published. You can view the full reports,including analyst certifications and other important disclosures, by clicking the hyperlinks in Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 11.Completed: 02-Feb-26, 09:57 GMTReleased: 02-Feb-26, 09:57 GMT if inflation expectations are dampened and it prompts action from theECB, it could be aheadwind for banks. So lots to focus on next week when Lagarde communicates. Bottom line– we expect no changes to ECB policy rates, balance sheet policies or the monetary policystatement. It feels like a good time to read our best ideas reports in European IG and HY. We expect the MPC to hold theUKBank Rate at 3.75% and provide cautious and non-committal guidance. Barclays Research Highlights Thinking Macro: Plus ca change We do not expect a sudden change in Fed policy under a future Chair Warsh. Market reaction US Money Markets: Warsh and the Fed's balance sheet A Warsh Fed is unlikely to move away from the Fed's "ample" reserves framework. But withinthose bounds it does tip risks somewhat toward lower reserve balances and higher repo FIGURE 1.Overdraftswere substantial pre-GFC... Gold - Pausing for thought Gold’s remarkable start to 2026 has thrust the metal back to centre stage. We break down theforces behind the spike, argue that a short-term pull pack and positioning reset is likely but FIGURE 3. Our model suggests gold's fair value is c. $4000... Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, Barclays Research FX Views: US dollar: How low can it go? There is space for the yen to appreciate further and realign with fundamentals. Near term thiscould still boost the dollar's risk premium, which is large but not extreme. Medium term, this isa yen, not a dollar, policy. An expensive EUR should underperform under-allocated EM FX. FX and EM Rates Views: Trillion dollar diversification to EM gets unexpected boost Historically, an unwind of short Yen positions would hurt carry trades and in particular EMassets. This time around, however, it is likely to further reinforce a catch-up of re-allocations toEM local assets, a process underway since "Liberation Day", which has ample space to run. FIGURE 7. The USD's decoupling from fundamentals... Barclays Key Macro Views US Outlook We view Warsh’s transition is unlikely to materiallyshiftpolicy in 2026. If growth >2%,unemployment ~4.4%, and sticky inflation, the FOMC is likely to deliverno more than twocuts(first cut no soo