利用机器学习和卫星数据预测经济增长（英）

Nowcasting EconomicGrowth withMachineLearningand SatelliteData Eurydice Fotopoulou,Iyke Maduako,Prachi Srivastava,M.BelenSbrancia WP/26/20 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of theIMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2026JAN IMF Working Paper Statistics Department Nowcasting Economic Growth with Machine Learningand Satellite Data Prepared byEurydice Fotopoulou, Iyke Maduako,Prachi Srivastava,M.BelenSbrancia* Authorized for distribution byMarco MariniJanuary2026 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the authors and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthorsand do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:The absence of reliable data on fundamental economic indicators(e.g. real GDP),combined withstructural shifts in the economy,canseverely constrain the ability to conduct accurate macroeconomic analysisand forecasting.This paper explores alternativesto address data limitations by integrating machine learningand satellitedatato estimate real GDP.Specifically, it finds that incorporating satellite-based nightlight data intoa random forest model significantly improves the accuracy ofquarterly GDPgrowth estimates compared withmodels relying solely on traditional indicators.This empirical application contributes tothe emergingnowcastingfieldtoenhance economic forecasting ineconomies with significant data gaps. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Fotopoulou, E.,Maduako, I.,Srivastava, P.andSbrancia, M.B.(2026).Nowcasting Economic Growth with Machine Learning and Satellite Data.Working Paper.InternationalMonetary FundWP/26/20 Nowcasting Economic Growthwith Machine LearningandSatellite Data Prepared by:Eurydice Fotopoulou, Iyke Maduako,Prachi Srivastava,M.Belen Sbrancia1 Contents Glossary................................................................................................................................................................3Executive Summary..............................................................................................................................................41.Introduction..............................................................................................................................................52.Literature Review.....................................................................................................................................63.Data.........................................................................................................................................................74.Methodology..........................................................................................................................................155.Results...................................................................................................................................................176.Conclusion.............................................................................................................................................22Bibliography........................................................................................................................................................23Annex I. Comparison of Regression Techniques................................................................................................26Annex II. Additional Figures................................................................................................................................30 FIGURES Figure 1.Year-on-Year Real GDP Comparison....................................................................................................8Figure 2.Quarter-on-Figure 2. Quarter-on-Quarter Real GDP Comparison........................................................8Figure 3. Composite Quarter-on-Quarter Real GDP Growth Rate........................................................................9Figure 4. Average Change in Night Light Map, 2019-2024 (percentage)...........................................................10Figure 5. Average Annual Change in NDVI Map for Venezuela, 2019-2024 (percentage).................................11Figure 6. Average Annual Change in EVIMap for Venezuela, 2019-2024 (percentage)...................................11Figure 7. Average Annual Change in NO₂Emissions Map for Venezuela, 2019-2024 (percentage).................12Figure 8. Mean Growth Rates of Night Light Data (2012-01 to 2024-03), NDVI and EVI (2003-01 to 2024-03),and NO₂Emissions (2004-10 to 2024-03)..........................................................................................................13Figure 9. Feature Selection without Satellite Data.......................................