利用机器学习和现代数据科学对司法改革成本和收益进行加权（英）

Policy Research Working Paper10449Weighting Justice Reform Costs and Benefits Using Machine Learning and Modern Data ScienceChris MahonyMatthew ManningGabriel WongSocial Sustainability and Inclusion Global PracticeMay 2023 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized Produced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 10449Can the impact of justice processes be enhanced with the inclusion of a heterogeneous component into an existing cost-benefit analysis app that demonstrates how benefactors and beneficiaries are affected? Such a component requires (i) moving beyond the traditional cost-benefit conceptual framework of utilizing averages, (ii) identification of social group or population-specific variation, (iii) identification of how justice processes differ across groups/populations, (iv) distribution of costs and benefits according to the identi-fied variations, and (v) utilization of empirically informed statistical techniques to gain new insights from data and maximize the impact for beneficiaries. This paper outlines a method for capturing heterogeneity. The paper tests the method and the cost-benefit analysis online app that was developed using primary data collected from a develop-mental crime prevention intervention in Australia. The paper identifies how subgroups in the intervention dis-play different behavioral adjustments across the reference period, revealing the heterogeneous distribution of costs and benefits. Finally, the paper discusses the next version of the cost-benefit analysis app, which incorporates an artificial intelligence-driven component that reintegrates individual cost-benefit analysis projects using machine learning and other modern data science techniques. The paper argues that the app enhances cost-benefit analysis, development outcomes, and policy making efficiency for optimal prioritization of criminal justice resources. Further, the app advances the policy accessibility of enhanced, social group-specific data, illuminating optimal policy orientation for more inclusive, just, and resilient societal outcomes—an approach with potential across broader public policy.This paper is a product of the Social Sustainability and Inclusion Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at cmahony@worldbank.org. Weighting Justice Reform Costs and Benefits Using Machine Learning and Modern Data Science Chris Mahony1*, Matthew Manning2*, Gabriel Wong3* Keywords: justice reform; cost-benefit analysis; machine learning; data science; justice processes; heterogeneity * This paper exclusively reflects the views of the authors and does not necessarily represent those of the World Bank nor its Board of Directors. The authors thank Varalakshmi Vemuru, Jose Cuesta, Rohini Srihari, James Brumby, Barry Maher, Patrick Barron, and Aly Rahim for useful feedback and suggestions. All remaining errors are solely the responsibility of the authors. 1 World Bank Group; Peloria P.B.C; 2 Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, City University of Hong Kong; 3 ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, The Australian National University 2 Introduction The joint United Nations-World Bank flagship report, 'Pathways for Peace' (United Nations and World Bank, 2018), cites grievances surrounding social group-specific exclusion from access to justice and security as one of four arenas of social contest that inform the risk of violence.1 The World Bank has developed analytical tools for identifying the political economy and efficacy of governance and justice reform including the relationship between justice sector policy and programmatic approaches and the World Bank’s twin goals of reducing extreme poverty and driving shared prosperity.2 To achieve the above goals, a comprehensive economic framework is required for tracing how public policy processes or their substantive consequences vary across individuals and communities. Curren