利用大型航运数据估算东欧和中亚的公路货运成本（英）

Policy Research Working Paper10533Estimating Road Freight Transport Costs in Eastern Europe and Central Asia Using Large Shipping DataAtsushi IimiTransport Global Practice July 2023 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized Produced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 10533The recent global crises, such as the COVID-19 crisis, remind us of the importance of efficient transportation and logistics. Notably, however, even before the crises, some regions were already experiencing a gradual increase in freight costs, with more and more empty trucks observed. The paper recasts light on the question of how road freight costs are determined using large, unique shipping data from Eastern European and Central Asian countries. It finds that economies of scale are significant in both freight weight or load factor and distance. The elasticity with respect to freight weight is particularly high at about 0.3 to 1.0 in absolute terms. Thus, to contain trucking costs, it is important to maximize the load factor through freight con-solidation at origins and destinations. The elasticity with respect to distance is relatively modest at 0.04 to 0.16 in absolute terms but still statistically significant, indicating that distance may not necessarily be a constraint on trade and regional integration. Trucking costs also decrease with driving speed, a proxy for efficiency of movements or road conditions. The elasticity is significant for food products (−0.03) and other consumer goods (−0.11). Finally, the paper finds that border crossing adds 3–4 percent to freight costs.This paper is a product of the Transport Global Practice. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The author may be contacted at aiimi@worldbank.org. Estimating Road Freight Transport Costs in Eastern Europe and Central Asia Using Large Shipping Data Atsushi Iimi¶ † Eastern & Southern Africa, Transport The World Bank Key words: Road freight rates, shipping costs, regional integration. JEL classification: R41; C21; O52. ¶ Corresponding author. † This paper is a background paper of the Shrinking Economic Distance study. - 2 - I. Introduction 1. In recent years, transportation costs have been increasing all over the world because of various external shocks, such as the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis, reminding us of the importance of efficient transport and trade.1 Because of the stagnation and faster-than-expected recovery in global trade and outputs, international s hipping remains constrained. Shortages continue in logistical equipment, containers, service operators, such as truck drivers and port operators, and cargo vessels (UNCTAD, 2021). Maritime freight rates reached over US$10,000 per 40-foot container in 2021, five times higher than the level prior to the COVID crisis (Figure 1). Road transport costs are also increasing. According to Eurostat, the harmonized consumer price index for transport jumped from 106.7 in 2020 to 127.6 in 2022, a 20-percentage point increase for the last two years (Figure 2). Figure 1. Global Maritime Freight Rates Figure 2. Transport CPI in EU Source: Drewry. Source: Eurostat. 2. Notably, however, even before the COVID crisis, some regions, such as Europe, observed an increasing trend of freight costs. Various reasons exist. First, fuel prices increased. Particularly, diesel prices were on average 0.99 euros in 2016 but increased to 1.40 euros in 2019 and about 2 euros in 2022 (Figure 3). This had a significant impact on freight rates because diesel costs account for one-third to one-half of the total transport operating costs. Second, truck drivers are insufficient. Aging workforce in the market is a structural challenge, putting more pressure to 1 The following analysis examines the period from 2010 to 2020. The impact of the COVID crisis may not be reflected sufficiently in our dataset. - 3 - increase drivers’ wages. While drivers over 55 years old ac