南亚人口转型与教育支出：机遇与挑战

Policy Research Working Paper Demographic Transition and Education Opportunities and Challenges Mariana MarchionniNamrata Raman TognattaEmmanuel VazquezMonica Yanez-Pagans Policy Research Working Paper11303 Abstract Decline in the school-age population due to demographicchanges presents an opportunity to redirect resources withinthe education sector to improve access and quality. How-ever, the experiences of countries that have gone throughsimilar demographic transitions show that a shrinking stu-dent population does not automatically translate into moreefficient spending due to structural and political challenges. 2050 across eight South Asian countries, considering demo-graphic shifts and different scenarios related to educationsystem coverage, efficiency, and economic growth. Thefindings show that demographic changes could allow forreinvesting educational resources for basic education equiv-alent to 0.6 percentage points of gross domestic producton average by 2050 (compared to 2020), even after achiev- The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those Demographic Transition and EducationExpenditure in South Asia: Mariana Marchionni**Namrata Raman TognattaEmmanuel Vazquez****Monica Yanez-Pagans Keywords: education, demographic transition, demographic dividend, South Asia, educationresources. JEL codes: I22, I25, J11. 1.Introduction The demographic transition in South Asia presents both challenges andopportunitiesfor the education sector.By 2050,the region’s under-17population is expected to decline by about 10%, dropping from 634 million in SAR is one of the most populated regions in the world and home to thehighest share of the global poor. Over the past decade, SAR has witnessed asignificant expansion in access to basic education. The implementation of Despite improvements in access to education, ensuring children receivequality education remains a significant challenge in SAR. For instance, theWorldBank’s Learning Poverty Database shows that in countries like One of the primary contributors to the persistently low quality ofeducation in SAR is the region's low investment in education. SAR countriesspendon average only 3.5%of their gross domestic product(GDP)oneducation. In contrast, the Education 2030 Framework for Action (UNESCO, However, the challenge in South Asia is not just the low level ofinvestment in education, but also how inefficiently these funds are allocated. expenditure on physical infrastructure and staff salaries. This spendingpattern leaves limited room for investments in other critical areas that couldhave a greater impact on learning outcomes (Béteille et al., 2020). Therefore,there is an urgent need for strategic investment in areas proven to enhanceeducational quality. To address this, there is an urgent need for more In this context, the evolving demographic landscape in SAR countriespresentsan opportunity to create fiscal space for improving access toeducation and learning outcomes. In countries with declining school-agepopulations, the demographic shift offers the opportunity to strategicallyreallocate resources to improve both access and quality. However, in practice,a shrinking student population does not automatically translate into moreefficientspending due to structural and political challenges.Without Therefore, to fully capitalize on the demographic dividend, South Asiancountries must proactively manage staffing and school networks and investin cost-effective initiatives proven to improve learning outcomes. Withoutcareful planning, education systems in the region may become strained, with Moreover, investing in cost-effective interventions that enhance learningoutcomes is essential for improving education quality. Experience from other 3 countries shows that efficiency gains from school consolidation should bereinvested in ways that directly benefit students and enhance learning,thereby ensuring continued community support. In this regard, Angrist et al.(2025) offer valuable insights. Their comprehensive analysis of more than 150educational policies across 46 countries, based on randomized control trials,identifiesthe most cost-efficient interventions for improving education One of the biggest challenges in this transition is that school networkscannot be easily downsized. Even as class sizes shrink, schools still require aminimumnumber of teachers,fixed infrastructure maintenance,andadministrative support. A teacher is still needed for 20 students, even if the One effective way to manage costs while maintaining quality is schoolconsolidation—mergingmultiple schools into a