气候压力下的保险与再保险：全球供应链中的系统性风险管理

Published by Stockholm Environment InstituteVisiting address:Textilgatan 43 Post and deliveries:Virkesvägen 1A120 30 Stockholm, SwedenTel:+46 8 30 80 44www.sei.org Author contactMikael Mikaelssonmikael.mikaelsson@sei.org EditingTom Gill LayoutRichard Clay GraphicsMia Shu Media contact Ulrika Lamberthulrika.lamberth@sei.org Cover photoAltona fish market during flood, Hamburg, Germany © Westend61 / Getty Copyright Copyright © 2026 Stockholm Environment Institute. This work is licensed under Creative CommonsAttribution 4.0 International. To view a copy of the licence, visit creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 DOI:https://doi.org/10.51414/sei2026.002 Acknowledgements Stockholm Environment Institute is an international non-profit research institute that tackles climate,environment and sustainable development challenges. We empower partners to meet these challenges through cutting-edge research, knowledge, toolsand capacity building. Through SEI’s HQ and seven centres around the world, we engage with policy, Contents Abstract 1.Background62.Aims and methods83.The role of (re)insurance in managing climate risks to supply chains104.The limits of (re)insurance in managing systemic climate risks124.1Emerging un-insurability and protection gaps144.2Modelling limitations and the underestimation of risk164.3Fragmented data, metrics and standards184.4Short-termism in a long-term risk landscape195.From risk management to risk amplification: (re)insurance underclimate stress256.Conclusion: rethinking risk transfer under pressure in a warming world29References32 Abstract As climate change accelerates, global supply chains – long optimized for efficiencyrather than resilience – are increasingly exposed to a rising tide of climate-relateddisruptions. These shocks are rarely isolated. They cascade across borders andsectors, disrupting production, logistics, and trade in ways that reveal deep systemic This report examines how the insurance and reinsurance sectors are responding tothese challenges, as well as the emerging limits of traditional risk-transfer models. Wedraw on a literature review and expert consultations with senior climate risk specialistsacross the European (re)insurance ecosystem to explore how insurance interacts withclimate vulnerability in key sectors and supply chains. We also investigate the changing Key findings •Insurance and reinsurance systems are central to managing climate risks inglobal supply chains, but their capacity is increasingly constrained by systemic,compounding, and cross-sectoral climate shocks. Traditional risk-transfer •Pressures on insurance are increasingly conditioned by policy settings and exposuregrowth, not just market dynamics. Rising losses reflect not just intensifying hazardsbut the accumulation of assets in hazard-prone areas, as well as policy choices that •Demand-side constraints and incentives can be the binding limit. Improvedmodelling and product innovation will not translate into resilience unless firms,households, and public authorities face incentives to act on risk information, through •While innovative solutions, such as parametric products, Contingent BusinessInterruption (CBI) cover, and resilience-linked assessments, offer valuable tools,they are limited in scope and reliability. Rigid payout triggers, basis risk, and narrow •The scope of insurance coverage remains narrowly focused on assets and directdamages, excluding slow-onset, indirect, and social dimensions of climate risk.Climate-related risks to human health and productivity among supply-chain workers •Risks to labour in supply chains are effectively invisible to current life and healthinsurance systems, particularly in physically exposed roles such as agriculture,construction, and logistics. Workers in such roles often fall outside formal insurance •Structural and technical limits – including reliance on historical data, incompleteclimate-adjusted modelling, and fragmented risk metrics – undermine insurers’ability to anticipate systemic exposure. However, consultations for this reportalso underscored that better analytics are necessary but not sufficient: without •Short-term underwriting cycles and annual repricing prevent insurance fromsupporting long-term adaptation. The focus on immediate solvency and profitabilityconflicts with the multi-decadal nature of climate risk, discouraging investment in •Historically, insurance has reinforced economic stability. But without substantialchanges to business models, regulation, and public-private coordination, there is arisk the sector will undermine that stability by amplifying systemic climate stress. 1.Background Climate change has become a systemic threat to global economic stability, exposingthe fragility of supply chains that underpin food, energy, and industrial security. Oncedesigned for efficiency and speed, these networks are now increasingly vulnerableto more frequent floods, droughts, heatwaves, and storms. The 2024E