气候压力下的保险与再保险：全球供应链中的系统性风险管理

Managing systemic risk in global supply chains SEI working paperJanuary 2026Mikael Mikaelsson Published by Stockholm Environment InstituteVisiting address:Textilgatan 43Post and deliveries:Virkesvägen 1A120 30 Stockholm, SwedenTel:+46 8 30 80 44www.sei.org Author contact Mikael Mikaelssonmikael.mikaelsson@sei.org EditingTom Gill LayoutRichard Clay GraphicsMia Shu Media contact Ulrika Lamberthulrika.lamberth@sei.org Cover photo Altona fish market during flood, Hamburg, Germany © Westend61 / Getty Copyright Copyright © 2026 Stockholm Environment Institute. This work is licensed under Creative CommonsAttribution 4.0 International. To view a copy of the licence, visit creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 DOI:https://doi.org/10.51414/sei2026.002 Acknowledgements Stockholm Environment Institute is an international non-profit research institute that tackles climate,environment and sustainable development challenges. We empower partners to meet these challenges through cutting-edge research, knowledge, toolsand capacity building. Through SEI’s HQ and seven centres around the world, we engage with policy,practice and development action for a sustainable, prosperous future for all. Contents Abstract4 1.Background62.Aims and methods83.The role of (re)insurance in managing climate risks to supply chains104.The limits of (re)insurance in managing systemic climate risks124.1Emerging un-insurability and protection gaps144.2Modelling limitations and the underestimation of risk164.3Fragmented data, metrics and standards184.4Short-termism in a long-term risk landscape195.From risk management to risk amplification: (re)insurance underclimate stress256.Conclusion: rethinking risk transfer under pressure in a warming world29References32 Abstract As climate change accelerates, global supply chains – long optimized for efficiencyrather than resilience – are increasingly exposed to a rising tide of climate-relateddisruptions. These shocks are rarely isolated. They cascade across borders andsectors, disrupting production, logistics, and trade in ways that reveal deep systemicvulnerabilities in the arteries of the global economy. At the same time insurance andreinsurance, the financial mechanisms historically relied upon to absorb such shocks,are being tested by the growing complexity, frequency, and severity of climate hazards. This report examines how the insurance and reinsurance sectors are responding tothese challenges, as well as the emerging limits of traditional risk-transfer models. Wedraw on a literature review and expert consultations with senior climate risk specialistsacross the European (re)insurance ecosystem to explore how insurance interacts withclimate vulnerability in key sectors and supply chains. We also investigate the changingnature of insurance in a world of compounding risk, and outline what this means foreconomic stability, sectoral preparedness, and future adaptation efforts. Key findings •Insurance and reinsurance systems are central to managing climate risks inglobal supply chains, but their capacity is increasingly constrained by systemic,compounding, and cross-sectoral climate shocks. Traditional risk-transfermechanisms are being tested by losses that no longer occur as isolated orindependent events.•Pressures on insurance are increasingly conditioned by policy settings and exposuregrowth, not just market dynamics. Rising losses reflect not just intensifying hazardsbut the accumulation of assets in hazard-prone areas, as well as policy choices thatcan distort risk signals, which reinforce vulnerability and widen protection gaps.•Demand-side constraints and incentives can be the binding limit. Improvedmodelling and product innovation will not translate into resilience unless firms,households, and public authorities face incentives to act on risk information, throughpricing rules, access to credit, and conditionality attached to public support forinsurance and recovery.•While innovative solutions, such as parametric products, Contingent BusinessInterruption (CBI) cover, and resilience-linked assessments, offer valuable tools,they are limited in scope and reliability. Rigid payout triggers, basis risk, and narrowsupplier definitions constrain their effectiveness in addressing cascading supply-chain losses.•The scope of insurance coverage remains narrowly focused on assets and directdamages, excluding slow-onset, indirect, and social dimensions of climate risk.Climate-related risks to human health and productivity among supply-chain workersare particularly under-recognized, revealing a blind spot in both life and healthinsurance systems.•Risks to labour in supply chains are effectively invisible to current life and healthinsurance systems, particularly in physically exposed roles such as agriculture,construction, and logistics. Workers in such roles often fall outside formal insurancesystems, and even when insured, climate-related illness, productivity loss, or mentalhealth impact