伊朗稳定的石油利益上升

Institutional Research Group The Elevated Oil Stakes of Benny WongSenior Research Analyst, Energybenny.wong@pitchbook.com pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Rising tensions bring back concerns of the past Published on January 21, 2026 PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, most Contents Key takeaways Key takeaways Oil supply concerns increase as tensionsmount in Iran The Strait of Hormuz is a critical choke point •Oil supply concerns mount as protests escalate in Iran.Anti-governmentdemonstrations have spread nationwide, prompting a crackdown by the Iranianauthorities and US threats of military intervention. Conflict in the region coulddestabilize oil markets, as Iran is a major crude producer with output of 3.3 million US oil producers have already signaled awillingness to stabilize Iran if needed5 An existing blueprint to combat aginginfrastructure and economic diversity •US producers signal willingness to stabilize Iran post-regime change.UnlikeVenezuela, where dilapidated infrastructure has deterred investment, Iran hasmaintained its oil and natural gas production despite years of sanctions, indicating •Regime change could unlock PE opportunities across energy and infrastructure. Iran’s Seventh National Development Plan is a five-year plan (2023-2028) thatidentifies investment needs in power/utilities (grid modernization, renewables,water), petrochemicals, natural gas/LNG expansion and export, and transportation Oil supply concerns increase as tensions mount in Iran Late December protests in Tehran, initially focused on economic issues suchas inflation, widespread unemployment, and low wages, have turned into violentanti-government demonstrations and have spread throughout the country. Inresponse, Iranian authorities have ramped up crackdown efforts on protestors and Investors have been watching the developments closely in anticipation of what apotential conflict could mean for oil markets. Iran is the world’s eighth-largest oilproducer, producing approximately 3.3 million barrels per day (bbl/d). Iran is also the While oil markets remain oversupplied, shrugging off near-term supply worries fromVenezuela (see our analyst note,Eyes on Venezuela’s Oil Revival), a disruption fromIran could have a greater impact on near-term prices. Not only is Iran’s volume more The Strait of Hormuz is a critical choke point The Strait of Hormuz sits between Oman and Iran and connects the Persian Gulf withthe Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The strait is deep enough and wide enough(only 21 miles wide at its narrowest) to handle the world’s largest crude oil tankers, and Approximately 20% of global oil and petroleum products passes through the Strait,primarily volumes from Saudi Arabia, UAE (United Arab Emirates), Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and, Iran.2Most of the volumes are destined for Asia, including China, India, South Any disruption that prevents oil from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, even temporarily,can cause substantial supply delays and raise shipping costs, potentially increasingglobal energy prices. There are estimates that oil can hit more than $90/bbl in late2026 if Iran’s oil exports are completely removed from the market starting in February.3Most volumes that transit the strait have no substantial alternative means of exiting Iran frequently uses the threat of closing the Strait as a political and economic weaponwhen facing pressure, particularly sanctions, but has never successfully blocked it,as it would also harm its own exports and invite significant military response. Recenthistory demonstrates how nervous the market can get and how volatile crude pricesbecome when tensions rise in the region. In May 2018, after President Trump withdrewthe US from the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan In addition to oil, 20% of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade also passesthrough the Strait of Hormuz at more than 10 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d).4Most of the volumes come from Qatar or the UAE, and 80% of them are destined for Asianmarkets. Any disruption of trade through the Strait could also affect regional and US oil producers have already signaled a willingness to While US energy companies have so far been hesitant to commit resources toVenezuela, Iran appears relatively more appealing. US oil producers have already pledged to help stabilize Iran in the event of a regime change.5One of the biggestinvestor concerns in Venezuela is the dilapidated state of the infrastructure afteryears of neglect and underinvestment, as evidenced by the inability of production torecover to pre-sanctions levels. In contrast, Iran has remarkably sustained output despite repeated, ongoing sanctions imposed on it. Iran’s peak oil production wasmore than 6 million bbl/d before the oil workers’ strike in late 1978 and US sanctions in Iran’s oil production costs aren’t publicly disclosed but are generally consideredamong the lowest