研究部一月份研究报告回顾

Hong Kong | INVESTNOTES REPORTS REVIEW 行業： 汽車&航空(章晶)公用事業、商品、消费（李曉然） 汽車&航空(章晶) 於 本 月 本 人 發 佈 了 德 賽 西 威(002920.CH)， 銀 輪 股 份(002126.CH)和 模 塑 科 技(000700.CH)的首發報告。三家公司均憑藉其獨特競爭優勢獲得成功。於其中，我們更推薦德賽西威和模塑科技。 回顧2025年中國汽車市場，行業延續高景氣，國內/出口銷量均創歷史新高。全年汽車銷量達3440萬輛，同比增長9.4%。2025年國內銷量同比增長6.7%至2730.2萬輛。其中，新能源汽車表現尤為突出，銷量同比增長28.2%至1649.0萬輛，滲透率提升7.0個百分點至47.9%，國內新能源乘用車滲透率達54.0%（同比+8.7個百分點），商用車滲透率38.3%（同比+10.4個百分點）。出口方面，全年汽車出口709.8萬輛（同比+12.1%），首次突破700萬輛，新能源汽車出口占比36.8%（同比+14.9個百分點），成為出口增長核心動力。 政策端，以舊換新政策延續及新能源購置稅免征政策優化（延長至2027年底，減免上限提高）有效刺激內需，行業競爭格局加速集中，自主品牌乘用車市占率提升至69.5%，頭部車企如比亞迪、吉利、奇瑞等憑藉技術優勢和全球化佈局領跑市場。 展望2026年，我們預計汽車行業將進入“穩量提質”新階段，全年銷量微增1%至3475萬輛，新能源汽車銷量有望達1900萬輛（同比+15.2%），滲透率進一步提升至54.4%。 就汽車零部件行業而言，2026年預計將進入“技術深化+出海加速”新階段。智能化加速推動算力芯片、智能底盤、艙駕融合系統成為核心賽道，L3級自動駕駛商業化落地帶動高算力域控制器、激光雷達、線控制動需求激增。同時，零部件企業加速海外建廠，通過CKD/SKD模式深度綁定整車出口，形成“整車出海+零部件先行”的協同格局。國內汽車電子領域的頭部公司德賽西威(002920.CH)值得關注。此外，汽車產業鏈技術外溢至機器人，也將催生跨界投資機遇，模塑科技(000700.CH)有望受益。 公用事業、商品、消费（李曉然） 於本月本人發佈了金风科技(2208.HK)的首发报告和洛阳钼业(1907.HK)的更新报告。 作為全球風電龍頭，我們認為在相關政策的支持下，風電需求穩定增長，海外訂單有望逐步放量，公司未來增長存在較強確定性，發展前景穩健。我們預計公司在2025-2027年收入分別為763.4億元，925.37億元和1066.22億元，EPS分別為0.81/1.09/1.32元。我們採用絕對估值法DCF。DCF分析中的關鍵假設：1. WACC通過WACC=Kd*Wd(1-T)+Ke*(1-Wd)計算得到為10.23%。2.折現期自2025年起至2031年止。3.永續增長率為2%。在WACC為10.23%、永續增長率為2%時，公司合理每股價值為19.21港元，首次給予"買入"評級。在WACC為9.21%-11.25%、永續增長率在1.8%-2.2%的情況下，公司合理每股價值區間為14.72-25.28港元。 公司對26年主要產品全年產量做出指引，其中銅金屬預計為76-82萬噸；鈷金屬為10-12萬噸；鉬金屬為1.15-1.45萬噸；鎢金屬為6500-7500噸；鈮金屬為1.0-1.1萬噸；磷肥為105-125萬噸；黃金為6-8噸；實物貿易量為400-450萬噸。我們認為未來全球銅或將處於供需偏緊格局，銅礦供應端容易受到干擾，而需求端則受益於電網投資、AI資料中心投入加大。2025年10月剛果（金）政府公佈鈷出口配額細則，結束自年初起持續八個月的鈷出口禁令。新規實行年度配額管理，2026-2027年每年配額均為9.66萬噸，鈷供需偏緊格局延續，業務增長確定性強，鈷價有望持續走強。今年開始公司對黃金產量提供指引，我們期待公司未來黃金產量實現放量，從而增加公司營業收入。我們上調對公司收入的預測，預計公司在2025-2027年收入分別為2241.92億元，2387.08億元和2475.59億元，EPS為0.95/1.15/1.28元，BVPS為4/4.8/5.6，給予公司2026年5倍P/B，並給予26.97港幣的目標價，上調至"買入"評級。 PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands.We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) astock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculativeundertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd (“Phillip Securities”). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms andlimitations set out below. This publication shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities shall not be liable for any direct orconsequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities has no reason tobelieve are unreliable and any analysis,forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of beliefonly. Phillip Securities has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate,complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this publication is subject to change, and Phillip Securities shall nothave any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event willPhillip Securities be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research madeavailable, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of anyparticular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from afinancial adviser regarding the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person,before making a commitment to invest in any of such products. This publication should not be relied upon as authoritative without further being subject to the recipient’s own independentverification and exercise of judgment. Thefact that this publication has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction nor a representation that any productdescribed in this material is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the productswhich may be described in this p