红线松绑：引领板块反弹
REMD shift; southbound holding is trending up Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedmichellekwok@hsbc.com.hk+8522996 6918Oliver Yu* policies to revive near-term sales volume Analyst,AsiaReal EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedoliver.y.o.x.yu@hsbc.com.hk+85222882050StephenWang*,CFA +0.5%), driven by several supportive developments. Key factors include regulatorsreportedly discontinuing the"Three Red Lines" reporting requirement (Cailianshe,28 Jan), early signs of stabilisation in the secondary market (KE Holdings-Top-downdebateswarming up,28 Jan),and renewed investorinterestinvalueopportunities. If confirmed, the removal of the "Three Red Lines" would mark asignificant shift in policy,signalling an end to the government's restrictive approachthat has challenged the sector since 2021. The sector's rally reflects ongoingrecalibration of policy expectations and aligns with our thinking that any positive newsiswelcomed(Anynewsisgoodnews,20Nov2025) Analyst,AsiaReal EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedstephen.wang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2284 1675 not registered/qualfied pursuant to FINRA regulations What matters now? Given that valuation has somewhat caught up, market attention willshift towards policy execution. While a major policy overhaul is not broadly expected, asteady introduction of targeted measures will be essential to support a recovery inhousing sales volumes in the short term. We think this approach should help maintainpositive market sentimentthrough ChineseNewYearand into thepeak Spring presaleseason. In this context, the sector will be particularly vulnerable to any policy gaps as the How does it stack upwithfundamentals?Fundamentals remainfragile,despiteearly indications of recovery in secondary sales.And within expectation,the upcomingearnings season is expected to present a challenge, reflecting the difficult marketconditions in 2H25 (The waiting game with a positive tilt, 22 Jan). However, this isbalanced bymacroeconomic stabilisation-assuming no furtherdeteriorationareflationary environment (HSBCe: 2026 CPI +0.7% y-0-y), and RMB strength, all ofwhich contribute to a more optimistic outlook for the property sector. Additionally,wesee the need to enhance the understanding of"effective" inventory to better assess thesector's recovery prospects. Stockpicks:Thebetatrade isbackon, where stocks withhigher riskprofilehaveoutperformedagainst higher policy expectations.Wemaintain our preference for CRLC&D and Seazen (all rated Buy), for which we expect an earnings recovery from 2026as well positioned to benefit from improving sentiment, while CRL remains a core holdingforlong-term investors. While these quality names may lag distressed peers in the nearterm, we believe they offer a more attractive risk-reward profile against a stabilisingmarket environment. Pushingtheaccelerator into2026 The 22nd edition of the EM Sentiment Survey Click to view Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com A-Living3319 HK Valuation charts Disclosure appendix The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s)is(are) named as author(s), and any otherrecommendation(s)or views contained in this research report: Michelle Kwok, Oliver Yu and Stephen Wang, CFA Equities:Stockratings and basisforfinancialanalysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report ("HSBC) believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used orrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different ratingsystems to describe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used ineach research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the rating From 23rd March 2015 HSB has assigned ratings on the following basis:Thetarget price is based on the analyst's assessment of the stock's actual current value,although we expect it to take six to 12 months for the market price to reflect this. When the target price is more than 20% a
