黎巴嫩经济监测，2025年冬季：脆弱的反弹（英）

LEBANONECONOMICMONITORPublic Disclosure Authorized Lebanon A Fragile Rebound Winter 2025 Global Practice for Economic PolicyMiddle East and North Africa Region © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet: www.worldbank.orgThis work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the govern- The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does notassume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of orfailure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immuni-ties of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, thiswork may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given.Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The WorldBank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Acronyms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vPreface. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .viiExecutive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .ixملخص تنفيذي. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .xi 1.Policy Context. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 2.Recent Economic Developments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3Output and Demand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 3.Outlook and Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 List of Figures Figure 1Real GDP is Expected to Grow by 3.5 percent in 2025.... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4Figure 2With all Demand Components Contributing Positively to Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4Figure 3Uncertainty is Rising in 2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6Figure 4But the Fiscal Stance is Improving and the Budget is Expected to be Balanced in 2025and 2026 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6Figure 5Public Debt Remains High and a Debt Restructuring is Unlikely to be Completed in 2026. . . .6 List of TablesTable 1. Fiscal Balance (2020-2026) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9Table 2. Selected Economic Indicators (2015-2026) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 List of Boxes Box 1. Lebanon’s 2026 Budget Draft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 MoFMinistry of FinanceNPLsNon-Performing LoansNTLsNight-Time LightsOECDOrganization for Economic Cooperationand DevelopmentPMPrime MinisterSDRSpecial Drawing RightsSOEsState-Owned EnterprisesUSDUnited States DollarVATValue Added TaxWBWorld Bankyoyyear-over-year BdLBanque du LibanBLOM-PMIBLOM Purchasing Managers’ IndexBTABeirut Traders AssociationCACurrent AccountCASCentral Administration of StatisticsCDRCouncil for Development andReconstructionCoMCouncil of MinistersCPIConsumer Price IndexGDPGross Domestic ProductHBCHigher Banking CommitteeHFIsHigh Frequency IndicatorsIMFInternational Monetary FundLBPLebanese Pound PREFACE T For questions and comments on the contentof this publication, please contact Naji Abou Hamde(nabouhamde@worldbank.org). To be included onan email distribution list for this Lebanon Economic ings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. TheMonitorplaces these developments, policies, and find-ings in a longer-term and global context and assessestheir implications on the outlook for Lebanon. Its cov-erage ranges from the macro-economy to financialmarkets to indicators of human welfare and devel-opment. It is