中国经济：PMI显示需求疲软

PMI signals demand softening Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hk China’s manufacturing PMI retreated in January after a brief December reboundwith weaker seasonality despitealater-than-usualChinese New Year(CNY).Demand softened as both new orders slipped back into contraction and exportorders weakened again. Deflation pressure nevertheless continued to ease, withraw material purchase and ex-factory prices both expanding, indicating PPI mayreturn to positive sooner than expected. Service PMI remained in contractionwhile construction PMI fell back, signaling mounting pressure to stabilize thefixed asset investment. We expect the softening growth momentumfrombothdomestic and external demand deteriorationshould trigger a new round of policystimulus around CNY, including stabilizing the property market by loweringmortgage rates and purchasing unsold property and stimulating consumption by Bingnan YE, Ph.D(852) 3761 8967yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk Manufacturing PMI eased after the December rebound.ManufacturingPMI fell to 49.3% in January from 50.1% in December, slipping back intocontractionand fell short of market expectationat 50.2%. Demand conditionssoftened as thenew order index declined to 49.2% from 50.8%, while newexport orders fell to 47.8% from 49.0%.Production eased but stayed inexpansion at 50.6%in Janvs. 51.7%in Dec, indicating supply-side resiliencedespite softer demand. Deflation pressure continued to ease as raw materialpurchase prices stayed elevated at 56.1%compared to53.1%in Dec, while Non-manufacturing PMI softened.Non-manufacturing activity weakenedinJanuaryahead of the CNY, with services remaining in contraction andconstruction falling back. Service PMIedged down to49.5%in Jan from49.7%, with activity expectations improving to 57.1%. Service selling pricesimproved to 48.9% from 48.1%, while employment remained subdued at Source: NBS, CMBIGM PMI pointedtosoftening economicmomentuminto 2026.The JanuaryPMIshowed weakerseasonality,despite a later-than-normal CNY.Domesticdemand indicators softenedas neworderindex in PMI further contracted,new housing market continued to slump and durable sales like vehiclesnotably dipped.External demandalsofacedheadwinds as exportorder indexweakened againandpolicy makers vowed torebalance the outsized tradesurplus in China.Policy makers might pivot to boostingdomesticdemand,includingstabilizing the property market by lowering mortgage rates andpurchasing unsold property and stimulating consumption by increasing fiscal Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 months: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International CapitalCorporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This repor