收缩的PMI信号显示国内需求疲软

Contractionary PMIs signal weakerdomestic demand The NBS and private manufacturing PMIs both missedexpectations, and the contractionary prints point to weakdomestic demand, while the rebound in new export ordersand shipping data suggest exports remain a key growthdriver. The fall in services PMI, the first time since late 2022, isworrisome. Ying Zhang +852 2903 2652ying.zhang3@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong Yingke Zhou+852 2903 2653yingke.zhou@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong Jian Chang+852 2903 2654jian.chang@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong •November NBS manufacturing PMI: 49.2 Bloomberg consensus forecast (Barclays): 49.4 (49.4) •October NBS manufacturing PMI: 49.0 Manufacturing PMI contracted for the eighth consecutive month inNovember China’s manufacturing PMI has contracted for the eighth consecutive month in November,making it the longest stretch of contraction on record. The index edged up to 49.2 from 49.0, butthe rebound was smaller than expected (Bloomberg and Barclays consensus: 49.4). Meanwhile,services activity weakened notably as holiday-related boosts faded, slipping below thethreshold for the first time in 14 months. Construction activity showed slight improvement,partly supported by faster local government bond issuance, but contracted for the fourthstraight month. Domestic demand likely remained weak in November, as the gap between the NBSmanufacturing PMI for new orders and new export orders narrowed visibly from the previousmonth. This was in contrast to signs of stronger external demand in November. The NBSmanufacturing PMI for new export orders improved last month compared with October,following the tactical truce reached between President Trump and President Xi at the APECsummit late last month. Similarly, the private RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI painted amixed picture, unexpectedly slipping to 49.9 from 50.6 previously as new orders nearly stalled inNovember. That said, new export orders rose at the fastest pace in eight months, signallingrenewed strength in overseas demand1. On balance, the contractionary manufacturing PMIs, the marked slowdown in services PMI, andcontinuedsoftnessin construction activity point to further weakening in domestic demand.While exports may experience some recovery following the recent trade truce with the US, fluidgeopolitical developments in recent weeks suggest that uncertainty will persist ( see: ChinaOutlook: Geopolitics, property, trade in focus, 28 November 2025). We expect GDP growth toslow from 4.8% y/y in Q3 to close to 4% y/y in Q4. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 6. Key developments in NBS manufacturing PMI •Production- and demand-side indicators remainedsoftalbeit with some improvements. Themanufacturing production PMI edged up to 50 in November from 49.7 in October, justavoiding a contraction. On the demand side, new orders PMI remained in contraction for thefifthconsecutive month, although it picked up by 0.4pp from October. New export orders PMIrose to 47.6 from 45.9 previously. With a larger gain in new export orders PMI, the gapbetween new orders and new export orders PMIs narrowed visibly to 1.6pp from 2.9pppreviously, which may be a sign ofsofteningdomestic demand in November. •Sectoral performance remained uneven. High-tech industries continued to outperform theheadline index, with the PMI for high-tech manufacturing staying beyond the threshold forten consecutive months, at 50.1 in November. Equipment manufacturing PMI dropped 0.4ppto 49.8, while consumer goods manufacturing PMI fell by 0.7pp to 49.4. Energy-intensivesectors remained weak, while the PMI improved slightly by 1.1pp to 48.4 in November. •By firm size, the PMI for small enterprises rose to 49.1 from 47.1 previously, marking itshighest level in six months. Medium-size enterprises also saw a modest improvement, up0.2pp to 48.9 in November. In contrast, the PMI for large enterprises contracted for a secondconsecutive month, falling further to 49.3 from 49.9 previously. Non-manufacturing PMI fell below the 50 threshold Non-manufacturing PMI fell by 0.6pp to 49.5 in November, contracting for the first time sinceDecember 2022. The slowdown reflected a notable moderation in services PMI, while theconstruction PMI contracted for the fourth month in November. The services PMI eased to 49.5 in November from 50.2 in October, the first contractionaryreading in 14 months as the holidayeffectfaded. In particular, the services PMI for new ordersfell by 0.4pp to 45.6, also marking the lowest since the September 2024 policy pivot. By sector,the services PMI for railway transportation, telecom and broadcasting, and monetary financialservices remained above 55, while readings for real estate and residential services stayed belowthe expansion threshold. Construction activity remained in contraction for the fourth consecutive month, thoughconditions improved slightly in November as holiday-related distorti