全球能源周报：煤炭从废墟中崛起

Coal emerges from the rubble 26 January 2026 Indonesia thermal coal exports at riskon supply disciplineNewcastle thermal coalhas been in a prolonged price correction since the 2022 global CommoditiesGlobal energy crisis. The final price drop to $94/t in 2025, however, finally triggered a sharpsupply response (seeThermal coal hits a price floor). Despite the recent price recovery,major producers appear committed to supply discipline. Indonesia, the world’s largestthermal coal exporter, is weighing a sizeable ~200Mt coal output cut to support pricesand preserve reserves. While the full volume may not translate directly into exportlosses, the proposal introduces meaningful downside risk to Indonesia’s export outlook.Moreover, the prospect of a new coal export duty is adding policy uncertainty.Combinedwith an ongoing supply crunch in South Sumatra, key buyers such as China and India arelikely to seek alternative suppliers, thereby offering support to seaborne prices. Global CommodityResearchBofA Europe (Madrid) Danica AverionCommodity StrategistMLI (UK)+44 20 7996 2325danica_ana.averion@bofa.com Francisco BlanchCommodity & Deriv StrategistBofA Europe (Madrid)+34 91 514 3070francisco.blanch@bofa.com China’s anti-involution cuts output and may support pricesMeanwhile, in Chinathe coal sector has been a key focus of Beijing’s anti-involution Michael WidmerCommodity StrategistMLI (UK)+44 20 7996 0694michael.widmer@bofa.com strategy to address industrial oversupplies and deflationary pressures. Coal is among theindustries with the most significant excess capacity and declining prices, a reason whyauthorities have recently signalled plans to curtail part of the additional 500Mt/y ofmining capacity that was approved during the 2021–2023 energy crisis. This dynamic isworth following as anti-involution efforts, combined with energy security and“just incase”stocking policies should ultimately be supportive of import demand. Clifton WhiteCommodity StrategistBofAS+1 713 247 6136clifton.white@bofa.com Rachel WiserCommodity StrategistBofAS+1 646 743 4069rachel.wiser@bofa.com On thecoal demand side, it is not all doom and gloomWhile thermal coal demand in advanced economies should continue its structural decline in line with climate and environmental commitments, emerging marketscan provide asilver lining. Indeed, coal appetite in Southeast Asian economies is on a firm footing,offsetting declines from traditional coal importers in the Pacific, like Japan and SouthKorea. Interestingly, in the US coal has also regained interest, driven by elevated naturalgas prices as well as more favourable regulatory backdrop. Combined with weak exportmargins, these dynamics suggest US producers may have limited incentive to increaseoverseas shipments this year unless international prices improve. Lower supply, steady demand = moreupside to coal pricesOverall, we raise our average Newcastle thermal coal price forecast to $123/t for 2026 (from $109/t) and $125/t for 2027 (from $110/t), with renewed production increases inIndonesia and China the main downside risks to ourview. China’s supply discipline alsohas implications for the metallurgical (“met”) coal market (seeMet coal is rebalancing),which is currently experiencing supply disruptions due to severe weather in Queensland,Australia. With the market tightening and potentially shifting into deficit in 2027, we liftour forecast for Australian hard coking coal to $235/t in 2026 (from $186/t) and $250/tin 2027 (from $189/t). BofA Global Research estimates Coal emerges from the rubble Thermal coal prices are holding up after last year’s collapseNewcastle thermal coal prices have remained resilient so far this year, holding up above $106/t. The market has been in a prolonged price correction since the 2022 globalenergy crisis, falling as low as $94/t in 2025 and cutting below marginal costs ofproduction (Exhibit 3). Industry margins more than halved last year across majorexporters, with roughly 60% of Russian producers operating at a loss due to weak prices,rising logistics costs, and ongoing sanctions. As the floor is now above $100/t (Exhibit4), mostly due to inflationary pressures across the industry and a weaker USD, the pricedrop has triggered a sharp supply response (seeThermal coal hits a price floor). Exhibit4: …cutting belowmarginal costs last yearSeaborne thermal coal cost curve (2025), $/t Global thermal coal prices, $/t Indonesian exports look increasingly challenged on output cut.. Despite the recent price recovery, major producers appear committed to maintainingsupply discipline. In this context, Indonesia, the world’s largest thermal coal exporter, isweighing a reduction in coal output to around 600Mt, down from 790Mt in 2025, tosupport prices and preserve reserves (Exhibit 5). The planned cut would equal nearly 40%of last year’s export volume. Granted, not all the~200Mt decline in production willdirectly affect exports, as Indonesia consumes about one‑thir