2026年风险投资（VC）：双速复苏

Data ScienceGlobal A two speed recovery in2026 ◆VC activity is accelerating in 2026, but it is a two-speedrecovery Shiva Joon, CFAData ScientistHSBC Bank plcshiva.joon@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 1356 ◆AI increasingly dominates in terms of sentiment and capitalraised; non-AI activity is still positive, but more muted Mark McDonaldHead of AI and Data ScienceHSBC Bank plcmark.mcdonald@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 3119 ◆With the highest concentration of AI deals and capital, the USislikely to remain the leading region for VC; IPO outlook Thomas DevlinAnalyst, Data ScienceHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.thomas.devlin@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 0672 Spotlight:VC in 2026 Our latest Funding the Future Survey, conducted inDecember, suggested investorswere feelingcautiouslyoptimisticon theoutlookfor VC/PE activityin 2026.Hard datasuggesta narrower recovery with concentrated deal volumes in themes likeAI,Healthcare, and Software.The speed of technological changes andachanginginterest rate environment are likely to be keytailwinds to the market in 2026. US VC is open for AI business Our proprietary investment tracker suggests VC investment activity is still increasing,in the US. However, market enthusiasm for AI deals ismuch higher than others.Thegap between AI and non-AI deal value in UShas widenedto over 30% in late-stageVC. Venture investors are also increasingly investing into early-stage to get on the AIladder quicker.Optimism around IPOs is increasing inthe US;howeverthesecondarymarket should continue to help with liquidity events in 2026. Fundraising islikely to improve only modestly according to our survey. AsiaPac–selective capital but optimism on horizon The slowdown in VC activity has been particularly pronounced in Asia, in part becauseof the effect of US tariffs and the moderate pace of economic growth in mainland China.Investors are optimistic on dealmaking and IPO activity in 2026. Fundraising is also likelytoimprovegiveninvestor confidenceishigher.We see mainland China, India, Japan,andSouth Korea asprimed to lead regional AIinvestments. EMEA–playing AI catch up to US EMEAhas also seenaVC recovery,according to our venture tracker in 2025. Yetinvestors are less optimistic about 2026 thanbeforeregardingdealmaking and IPOactivity. Monetary tightening in Europe in 2026 could make thingschallenging.However,AI investments are steadily increasing as a portion of overall VCinvestments and now sit over 35%. This is our latest report on the Disruptive Technology theme. If you want tosubscribe to any of our nine big themes,click here. Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Spotlight:VC in 2026 ◆VC investor confidence for 2026 is cautiously optimistic◆Our Venture Investment tracker shows capital invested is rising, butconcentrated in mega deals;especially those within AI◆Exits and IPOs should continue the recovery into2026;fundraisingconditions look less certain, however VC in 2026, what next? The latestHSBC Funding the Future survey,published inDecember 2025,showsnear-termsentiment in Venture Capital(VC) and Private Equity (PE)dealmaking has remained somewhatpositive,andinvestors are cautiously optimistic(see2026: Bullish hopes vs bubble fears,Dec2025).Some42% of private investors we surveyed now expect an increase in VC activity overthe first quarter of 2026. Overalonger horizon, through 2026, 55% of investors anticipate anincrease in VC/PE activity (Chart 1 and 2). 1. VC/PE investors arecautiouslyoptimistic onactivity in the next quarter… 2. …however most expect dealmaking toincrease in 2026 How do you foresee VC/PE activity over the comingyear? How do you foresee VC/PE activity over the comingquarter? Over the course of2025, VC/PE investor sentimentwhipsaweddue to macro headwinds, tariffuncertaintyand a tricky fundraisingbackground.However,hard data pointed towards a marketthat continued to recover throughout the year. Chart 3 shows our proprietary VentureInvestment Tracker (VenT). The activity level hit about 1.2 in December 2025, showing thatoverallinvestment in the VC space wasincreasing. Activity is still in positive territory (above1.00, the level showing growth). Source:PitchBook Data, Inc.,HSBC Although VenT suggests the VC market recovery in 2025 was in full swing, the data on dealvolume and counts paint a differentpicture. The recovery isrelatively“narrow” and focussed onkey sectors. Chart 4 shows yearly Deal count and Capital invested through VC deals globally.Although 2025 sawthethird straight year of higher capital invested, the number of deals in VCspace globally continued to decrease and remained below the 2021 peak. Dealmaking in theVC space,it would appear,has been accelerating in high-conviction categories, the premier ofwhich are AI and related deals