2026年并购展望

M&A outlook 2026Doing something big 14 January 2026 Luke Templeman | Thematic Strategist |Luke.Templeman@db.com| +44 207 541 0130Galina Pozdnyakova | Research Analyst |Galina.Pozdnyakova@db.com| +44 207 547 4994 Top M&Athemesfor2026 2. CEOs’ confidence rebounds, feel pressure to do something big 3. European lags but eventually follows the US higher 4. Smaller deals pick up amidst less economic uncertainty 5. Private equity comes in from the cold 6. AI buy over build 8. Spin-offs likely front-of-mind 9. Less fear about interest rates and the dollar Cover image: The green Prime Meridian Laser beam projectedfrom the Royal Observatory in London. The line denotes themerger point of the east and west hemispheres. 01.2025’s momentum to lead 2026 What we expect in 2026 Corporates Macro 1)Corporates feel pressure to do something big.2)AI strategy remains key to investor expectations. 1)Hyperscalers' systemic economic risk appears limited.2)The end of easing cycles in key economies. 3)Chinese economic resilience. 3)Areleveragingcycle. 4)The US economy is likely not in decline in the near term.5)There is a lot of money around that can bail out many (but not all) Another strong year for M&A value growth is likely Deal values may grow by 15% this year–that is basedon DB forecasts and the relationship between US M&Agrowth and real GDP growth, S&P 500 returns and 10yrbond yields this century. Given that M&A has been subdued since 2022 and pent-up demand remains, 2026 may follow last year’strajectory and “overshoot” this forecast. Yet, despite the growth inheadline M&A values, US companies are still somewhat timid talkingabout M&A. In part, this reflects the lag in deal count growth. Meanwhile, European corporateshave been more active in talking about all parts of corporate capital allocation. The M&A recovery has been highly concentrated in the US, driven largely by TMT. The sector mixhas been more diversified in Europe. Global M&A dealmaking by region–North America holds a record share of deal value at c 60%,but its share of deal count stands at just 27%, down from 35% in 2021. Lower antitrust concerns and AI are driving deals in power generation in the US while oil & gasand mining deals are booming in Europe 02.CEOs’ confidence rebounds–and manyfeel pressure to do something big The M&A bottleneck is not funding … … The bottleneck was CEO confidence–but this is better than you think. Even though overallconfidence remains subdued, CEOs are now far more optimistic about their own company. CEOs have been busy dealing with the urgent tasks of adapting to the rapid changes of the last five years. Thathas taken the focus away from investment and expansion. Expect their focus to return to new growthopportunities. Many CEOs will be under pressure to do something big–Strong earnings growth today masksthe fact that many companies have not adapted to the remarkable changes in the last five years The remarkable changes in the corporate environment over the last five years mean few companies will look thesame in five years’ time. 1)Introduction of Al2)Shrinking labour force post-covid3)Higher rates4)Tariff uncertainty Regional focus–US: Our model predicts the US dealcountmay start to rebound amid strongmarkets Regional focus–Europe: Our models suggest capital issuance in the Eurozone points to slowingM&A momentum in Q1 as good equity returns have struggled to pass through to M&A. The UK isbetter positioned with a positive contribution from stronger markets, especially lower yields. growth since 2022. To return to 2010s averages, deal values need to rise 86% and 40%,respectively (assuming no growth in market caps). M&A is more balanced relative to GDP, with ratios for US and Eurozone dealmaking now close tolast decade’s average. Nevertheless, this still shows that M&A still has room to recover beforethere are widespread signs of overheating in the market. Growth in sponsored deals–another sign of more M&A recovery is that while deal count growth has been slow,it masks a rapid expansion of sponsored deals, whose share has risen by +11pp in both the US and Europe since2019. PE growth is unlikely to fully replace the corporate dealmaking demand, but is contributing to the overalldemand for M&A. Regional focus–Asia A strong year for Asian M&A ➢Deal values are up significantly YoY in key markets including China(45%), Japan (84%) and India (40%), with overall growth in Asia at 38%. ➢The top 3 sectors by $ value were industrials & chemicals (22%),financial services (16%) and TMT (13%), with financial servicesdealmaking doubling. Unlike in the US, TMT M&A growth has not beenas strong in 2025. Deals in financial services were boosted by China(62% of Asian fin.svcsM&A value), where such M&A has doubled from2024,similar toJapan. Japan has also seen value of its industrials deals ➢Dealmaking values in Japan are now the highest since at least the early2000s, driven by strong equity markets, corporate gov