新西兰：QSBO快速解读

Date13 January 2026 Economics Macro Notes NZ: Quick take on the QSBO Phil OdonaghoeEconomist Three highlights from the Q4-25 QSBO survey for New Zealand released today: 1.The QSBO trading activity index jumped14pts, largest gain since Q1-2024,leaving the index at itshighest level since Q3-2021.The outcome suggestsmaterial upside riskfor GDP growthover coming quarterscompared to the 2.Labour search conditions point to½ppt decline inunemploymentby Q1-2026. Firms reportedthatdifficultiesfinding skilled labour in Q4 were about in line Q3,butmapping this index across to the unemployment rate suggests a ~½pptdecline in the unemployment rateby Q1 2026(Figure 2).If realized, this would bea materially stronger outcome than the RBNZ currently expect–theRBNZ’s Themateriallylower unemployment rate suggested by QSBO is also supportedby the monthly 'filled jobs' employment indicator.When expressed as a quarterlygrowth rate, the monthly employment indicator was in positive territory for 3.QSBO points to headlineinflation ~1ppt above RBNZ’s forecastby Q1-2026. Afterrising in Q3,merchant selling pricesjumped furtherin Q4and point toinflationjumping above thetopof the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band in Q1-2026(Figure 4).The proportion of respondents pointing to rising selling prices rose toits highest level since Q2-2023. When mapped across to CPI, QSBO points to Bottom line ThelatestQSBO points to material upside risks to RBNZ's latest activity andinflation forecasts.The market is currently pricing ~32bps of hikes by the end of2026, which is more hawkish thanourbase caseof rates on hold through the year.But if actual activity and inflation outcomes over coming quarters are in line with 13 January 2026Macro Notes 13 January 2026Macro Notes Appendix 1 Analyst Certification The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned leadanalyst(s). Inaddition, the undersigned lead analyst(s) has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific Important Disclosures Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FICCDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk andconflict disclosures can also be found athttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors are 13 January 2026Macro Notes Additional Information The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Deutsche Bank AG or one of its affiliates (collectively'Deutsche Bank'). Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sourcesbelieved to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Hyperlinks to If you use the services of Deutsche Bank in connection with a purchase or sale of a security that is discussed in thisreport, or is included or discussed in another communication (oral or written) from a Deutsche Bank analyst, Deutsche Deutsche Bank may consider this report in deciding to trade as principal. It may also engage in transactions, for itsown account or with customers, in a manner inconsistent with the views taken in this research report. Others withinDeutsche Bank, including strategists, sales staff and other analysts, may take views that are inconsistent with thosetaken in this research report. Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis, Opinions, estimates and projections constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report. Theydo not necessarily reflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to change without notice. Deutsche Bankprovides liquidity for buyers and sellers of securities issued by the companies it covers. Deutsche Bank research (https://research.db.com/Research/) , and can be found on the general coverage list and also on the coveredcompany's page. A Catalyst Call represents a high-conviction belief by an analyst that a stock will outperform orunderperform the market and/or a specified sector over a time frameof no less than two weeks and no more thanthree months. In addition to Catalyst Calls, analysts may occasionally discuss with our clients, and with DeutscheBank salespersons and traders, trading strategies or ideas that reference catalysts or events thatmay have a near-term or medium-term impact on the market price of the securities discussed in this report, which impact may bedirectionally counter to the analysts' current 12-month view of total return or investment return as described herein.DeutscheBank has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof if anopinion, forecast or estimate changes or becomes inaccurate. Coverage and the frequency of changes in marketconditions and in both general and company-specif