人工智能价值链：整合分析——各公司真正的人工智能增长潜力几何，谁可能成为被低估的赢家？

AI Value Chain: Putting it all together - how much AI upside doeseach name really have, and who might be an underappreciated In this note, we construct a top-down framework for dimensioning 2025-27 AI upside acrosssectors. As reminder, this is not how we are forecasting the companies in our coverage - thepurpose is to serve as a top-down framework to simplify comparisons across names in very Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Daniel Zhu+1 917 344 8309daniel.zhu@bernsteinsg.com We update our breakdown of a GB200 / NVL72 data center capex to reflectincreasing prices for DRAM and NAND.We estimate that this translates to an additional~$70k per rack for server DRAM and ~$35k per rack in storage costs, and update our Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com For 9 key hardware / semiconductor verticals, we extend the analysis using marketshare estimates to estimate incremental revenue per GW of capacity.We furtherregress QoQ incremental revenue vs. EBIT, and use the slope as an estimate of margins on Alex Wang, CFA+852 2123 2613alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com Mark C. Newman+1 212 845 7822mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com Putting it all together: BloombergNEF’s estimate of 16 GW of incremental capacityin 2027E * TAM / GW * Market Share * Incremental Margin = a rough estimate of David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com On a forward-looking basis, we find that Ibiden, Unimicron and the other PCB /substrate names could have very high torque to the upside, with Unimicron inparticular benefiting from several large opportunities in ABF substrate and HDI.Ibiden could benefit the most from Nvidia’s AI substrate upgrade as content grows 2xgeneration to generation. Our analysis further finds that (beyond the industry favorites likeNVDA and AVGO), GPU/ASIC names like AMD, Mediatek and Marvell, as well as electricalnames like Eaton, could all see very large upside opportunities relative to current profitfootprints. Chad Dillard+1 917 344 8469chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com Conversely, Intel and Cisco, as well as the server OEMs (Dell and HPE) have relativelylower exposure relative to their prominence in the AI debate. Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com While these estimates of AI upside are imprecise, and valuations factor in a myriadof non-AI factors, a first-pass comparison of estimate AI upside to multiples wouldpoint to Unimicron having further room to run.Conversely, Intel, and to a lesser extent Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com We acknowledge that the analysis is built on a static view of the GB200 cycle, andthat some of the dislocations could be because of forward-looking trends that arenot yet reflected in our estimates.In particular, we see significant upside to Delta onthe in-rack power side, NVDA/AVGO on content/backlog increases, MediaTek on the TPUramp, as well as memory/storage players such as SanDisk, Samsung, Micron, SK hynix, & Miguel Marques, CFA+1 917 344 8432miguel.marques@bernsteinsg.com Jack Lin+852 2123 2683 BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS AVGO (Outperform, $475):A strong 2025 AI trajectory seems set to accelerate into 2026, bolstered by software, cashdeployment, and superb margins & FCF. NVDA (Outperform, $275):The datacenter opportunity is enormous, and still early, with material upside still possible. AMD (Market-Perform, $225):AI expectations remain high, but a new deal with OpenAI has the prospect to drive further(possibly substantial) growth. INTC (Market-Perform, $36):Intel's problems have broken through to the forefront, though Trump’ support is helpful. Delta Electronics (model):We rate Delta ElectronicsOutperform, with PT = NT$1300. Chroma ATE (model):We rate Chroma ATEOutperform, with PT = NT$970. Unimicron Technology (model):We rate Unimicron TechnologyOutperform, with PT = NT$270. Quanta Computer (model):We rate Quanta ComputerUnderperform, with PT = NT$250. Ibiden:We rate IbidenOutperform, with PT = ¥8,250.00. DELL:We rate DELLOutperform, with PT of $180. HPE:We rate HPEMarket-Perform, with PT of $24. SMCI:We rate SMCIMarket-Perform, with PT of $42. SNDK:We rate SNDKOutperform, with PT of $580. DETAILS In this note, we construct a top-down framework for dimensioning 2025-27 AI upside across sectors. As reminder, this is not howwe are forecasting the companies in our coverage - the purpose is to serve as a top-down framework to simplify comparisons Accordingly, while we sense check estimates against our forecasts for companies under coverage, the approximations in thisanalysis will inherently be more high level, and will fail to capture nuances that we address in our company-specific forecasts,including issues like companies’ ability to play across different verticals and content increases/decreases as AI data center formfactors evolve. Moreover, there