全球储能：超级工厂军备竞赛内幕

Global Energy Storage: Inside the gigafactory arms race additions Tier1companies increasedby28% (509GWh)andby24%forallbatterymakers(769GWh).Atthe same time,stronger-than-expected ESS demand, combined with steady2025.This has contributedto emerging capacity bottlenecks,particularly at U.S.ESS plantsand some of CATL facilities in China. +85221232648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com +85221232615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com broadly inline with the demand growth of 32%.Global battery capacity grew by24%y-0-y to 4.0TWh in YE25 (vs.demand of 1.8TWh, +48%).Capacity growth is expected togrow by 33% y-0-y to reach 5.3TWh (+1.3TWh) in YE26. While it appears there is a surplusutilizationrates. +85221232629hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.con out as the onlymanufactureraggressively expanding capacity;we have raisedour 2027forecastby17% to 1.7TWhfor CATL which is a 70% increase from2025levels vs 17%CAGR for BYD and 14% CAGR for LGES. Most other producers are prioritizing higherutilizationrates and retoolingto capture fast-growing EsS demand. TheUSis expected overtake Europe astheworld's second-largestbattery73% to reach 0.51TWh by YE26 which will be higher than Europe's capacity of 0.42TWh(+30%y-o-y).China willmaintain itsdominantmarketpositionwith80%ofglobalcapacityandgrowby29%y-0-y in2026toreach4.12TWh. Batterychemistrytrends continueto shifttowards LFP'samong Chineseandnon-Chineseproducers.Capacityfor higher nickelcontent will see thefastest growth at 29%CAGRbetween2025-28followedbyNMC622at 17%CAGR.LFPwill also growrapidlysurging U.S.ESS demand.By 2026,U.S.ESS capacity is expected to fall close to short ofdomestic demand,positioningmanufacturers suchasLGES(5OGWhU.S.ESScapacityby2027),Samsung SDI (40GWh),Ford (20GWh),and Tesla (10GWh)as key potentialbeneficiaries. CATLwill maintain its global leadership,withcapacityreaching 1TWh (2025)and30% CAGRover the next two years. Tier-1 battery makers including CATL,LGES, SDI,SKl,BYD,and Panasonic accounted for 76% of global battery supply in 2025 (vs.78% in2024).CATL remains theclear leader with 965GWh ofcapacity at YE25 and is on trackto grow at a 33% CAGR through 2027to 1.7 TWh. LGES, with 484GWh today, is on trackto expand at a 14% CAGR to634GWh,making it the largest producer outside China.Samsung SDl, currently at 114GWh, isprojected togrowat a 23% CAGRto reach 173GWhoverthesameperiod. OurannualbatterysurveyshowsthatCATLremainsthemostdominantbatteryplayer with1TWhofcapacity(end2025)whichrepresents 43% of Tier 1capacity.BYD and LGES have a capacity which is only 50% of CATL while other players are an order ofmagnitude lower. If battery manufacturing is a scale industry, CATL is winning. Not only is CATL the largest in capacity terms butthisbasis we expect CATLmarket shareto remain similar or possibly increaseassumingbattery demandremains as good as wethink it will. Whiel there are concerns over near term margin pressure following increasing raw material prices, CATL remains ourtop pick in the battery sector.We remain Outperform on CATL (A).Wemaintain Market Perform on CATL (H), LGES and SamsungSDI. EXHIBIT 1:Global batteries comparison table Wehavetrackedthecost, capacity,and chemistryof522batterygigafactories (upfrom460 lastyear)worldwidetodetermine from4.0TWhin2025to6.5TWhby2027 (+28%CAGR)basedoncurrentprojectsindevelopment.Thisisbroadlyinlinewithdemandgrowthof27%CAGRoverthesameperiod.Byregion,Chinawillaccountfor75%oftotalcapacityin2027followedby US at 11% and Europe at 9%.While company execution is up for debate,it is clearthat China will continue to dominatebattery manufacturing industry dueto its incumbent and costs advantages.On the other hand,Europe and US battery capacityis expected to grow faster than China in the coming decade given the demand for domestically produced batteries and EVs. Batterymakers'expansionplans are largelybased on long-termsupplyagreementwith customers.CATLis expectedtoexpandcapacitythemostoutofthetop6batterymakersfrom965GWh in2025tomorethan1700GWhby2027.OutsideofChina,OEMsarelargelybuildingcapacitythroughJV'swiththelargebatterymakersalthoughtherearemanyindependentplayers emerging. LGES is targeting to expand capacity from 484GWh in 2025 to 634GWh by 2027 driven primarily from USTesla could still be a major disruptorfor the battery industry given its ambitious capacity expansion plans, but those have beendialed back.Europeanbatterymanufacturers havealso significantly scaled back ambitions overthepast years. 2027(+26%CAGR).China will have thelargest capacity in 2027at 4.9TWh (+24%CAGR).US capacity will be the fastestgrowing region at 56% CAGR withcapacity of 0.7TWh followed by Europeat 0.6TWh (+36%CAGR). battery capacity globally at close 80%,this is at peak levels and willfall to70%range bylatedecade.Europe's share willgrow CAPACITYREVISIONS Unlikelast year,when werevised globalbattery capacityforecasts downward, this year wehave raised our projections.Onestimate by 2%, from5.1TWh to 5.3TWh, and our 2030 forecast has been lifted even mor