美国葡萄酒行业现状2026（英）

State of the U.S.Wine Industry 2026 Written by Rob McMillanEVP & Founder Contents 1Introduction 2Executive summary 3Review of last year’s predictions 4Annual SVB State of the U.S. Wine Industry survey9 6U.S. Wine demand, correction and length 8Technical appendix Introduction For 26 consecutive years, Silicon Valley Bank has published the State of theU.S.Wine Industry Report, offering wineries, growers, distributors, lenders, educators,the press, and the broader supply chain a clear view of where the wine industrystands, how we got here, and what the future holds. Rob McMillan EVP & Founder,SVB Wine Divisionrmcmillan@svb.com This report isn’t just an academic exercise. Its purpose is to harness insights fromsome of the most experienced insiders in the wine business, providing an unmatched,data-driven understanding of industry risks, opportunities and realities. But we never Rob McMillanis one of the top wine-businessanalysts in the United States and the author ofSilicon Valley Bank’s highly regarded annualState of the Wine Industry Report, described byThe New York Timesas “probably the most Starting with the 2018 report, we began alerting the industry to an approachingdemand correction that would require a response. The business was otherwise doingwell so a prediction of that type wasn’t gratefully received. But, we were out ahead oftrends as a thought leader should be. Now that we’re here, there’s no need to tell you With Rob’s decades of experience researchingthe industry and working with winery clients, hisviews are sought after and trusted by winery Our goal with the report is partly to raise awareness. We all need to be attentive to thefactors that surround our business. We will still provide you with our view of the currentindustry dynamics. But starting with this report, our primary goal—with continuedindustry cooperation in our two surveys—is to offer more benchmarking and planning He is a prominent speaker, domestically andinternationally, and you will find him extensively After reading this report, we hope you will come away inspired and equipped withaction plans that enhance your chances of success in 2026 and beyond. Rob McMillan Executive summary The U.S.wine industry enters 2026 in a period defined as much by challenge asby opportunity for those willing to evolve. Across every dataset in this report,one finding is unmistakable: success today is behavioral. You have to see theproblem clearly and decide to reorient your message towards an evolved, and Key forecast outputs ▪2025 year-end volume: ~329 million cases (down from 335.9 millionin 2024)▪2025 year-end revenue:~$74.3 billion (down from $75.5 billion)▪Timing of Improvement:Declines moderating in 2026; a bumpy bottom The long era of passive demand—when visitation, distributor pull and automaticclub growth could mask strategic shortcomings—has ended. What has emergedis a widening performance gap in which the upper quartile wineries continue to As we move through this demand correction, we can see the industry isbifurcating into those doing well and those not doing so well. Since the industry This divide is evident not only in sales growth and pricing power but in howwineries describe their year. Top-performers focus on dialed-in consumerengagement, disciplined inventory and financial management, more precisebrand positioning, and hospitality-centered experiences that build loyalty ratherthan throughput. Digital tools amplify these efforts rather than substituting for The next phase of this correction will reward wineries that plan with clarity,engage with purpose and adapt with discipline. Said succinctly, the next phasewill reward those who recognize the reasons behind the changing demand andthen fundamentally change their businesses to accommodate it. Those whocontinue to do what they’ve always done will find their strategies failing as they By contrast, lower-performing wineries cite slowing traffic, distributordisengagement, discounting and rising costs—responses that, while accurate,reflect the lack of strategic attention. We are at a point where the problem has While we are predicting change, I need to underscore that the most crucial goalisn’t being right about exactly when the correction bottoms, as if the bottom The SVB demographic and cohort consumption approach reinforces why thesebehavioral differences matter. Consumption remains under pressure. That said, means, “we’ll all return to normal.” That thinking will be your undoing. The there is good news as the steepest part of the downturn appears to be waning bottom will arrive for your business when the time is right. The most importantgoal now is to be predictive of the evolved consumer, identify opportunities, and and our analysis suggests we are entering a new phase in the correction. Yes,2026 will still be a challenging year, but the industry is at least approaching apoint of stabilization. The recovery that follows will favor those already ex