谁获得了出口暴利？主导货币定价下的汇率、出口盈利能力和国民储蓄（英）

Who Captures ExportWindfalls? Exchange Rates,Export Profitability, andNational Saving underDominant-Currency Pricing Bas B. Bakker WP/26/9 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2026JAN IMF Working Paper Western Hemisphere Department Who Captures Export Windfalls? Exchange Rates, Export Profitability, and National Savingunder Dominant-Currency Pricing Prepared by BasB.Bakker Authorized for distribution by Ana CorbachoJanuary 2026 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:Under dominant-currency pricing—where many export prices are set in dollars—the realexchange rate allocates export windfalls between producers and consumers. When the real exchange rate isstable, rising dollar export revenues pass through nearly one-for-one into higher real local-currency exportincome, profits, and retained earnings; when it appreciates, part of the windfall accrues to consumers throughcheaper imports, compressing exporters' margins. National saving should therefore respond to real local-currency export income—the portion accruing to domestic producers—rather than to dollar receipts per se.Using five-year panels for 42 economies over 1982–2022, we find that the national saving rate rises by about0.27 percentage points for each 1 percentage point of GDP increase in real local-currency export income, whiledollar export income has no independent effect once the local-currency measure is included. Peru versus Brazilduring the commodity boom, China's post-WTO export surge, and Argentina's 2002 devaluation validate themechanism and its timing. A coefficient estimated from 41 countries predicts China's 9.7-percentage-pointsaving increase (2002–2007) with an error of just 0.1 point. These findings reinterpret the "global saving glut"as the aggregate outcome of export booms whose windfalls accrued disproportionately to high-savingproducers when real exchange rates remained stable. Who Captures Export Windfalls?Exchange Rates, ExportProfitability, and National Savingunder Dominant-Currency Pricing Prepared by Bas B. Bakker1 Contents 1Introduction4 2Literature Review6 2.1Dominant currency pricing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 2.2Real exchange rates, Dutch disease, and overvaluation. . . .72.3Export-led growth and regional divergence . . . . . . . . . . .8 3A Distributional Mechanism Linking Export Booms toSaving under Dominant-Currency Pricing 3.1Export income measured in dollars and in local currency . . .93.2The real exchange rate as a distribution mechanism . . . . . .103.3From distribution to national saving. . . . . . . . . . . . . .113.4Testable implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .12 4Case Studies: China, Brazil, and Peru13 4.1A Tale of Three Export Booms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .134.2China After 2007 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .224.3Saving, Investment, and External Balance. . . . . . . . . . .25 5Local-Currency Export Income and National Saving275.1The mechanism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27 5.2The virtuous cycle. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .335.3From China to the cross-country evidence. . . . . . . . . . .34 6Mechanism Validation39 6.1Out-of-Sample Prediction: China’s Saving Dynamics. . . . .396.2Natural Experiment: Argentina’s 2002 Devaluation . . . . . .426.3Comparative Policy Episodes: Peru versus Brazil. . . . . . .446.4Beyond Dollar Receipts: Why Saving Tracks Local-CurrencyIncome and Its Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .456.5Timing, Reverse Causality, and Direction of Effect. . . . . .456.6Exchange-Rate and Fiscal Policy as Transmission Mechanisms 486.7Summary: Multiple Lines of Evidence. . . . . . . . . . . . .48 7The Global Saving Glut and Structural Transformation49 8Conclusion51 Bibliography 53 AData and Construction of Core Variables56A.1Data sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56A.2Prices and deflators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56A.3Export income measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56A.4Exchange rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57BAdditional Data Sources and Series Codes58CList of countries included59DThe Profitability Channel under Dominant-Currency Pric-ing60EDutch Disease as a Profitability Mechanism under Dominant-Currency Pricing62FAlternative Explanations for China’s Saving Surge67G Robustness: Adjusting for Imported-Input Intensity69 1Introduction Export booms generate sharply different