土耳其服务业通货膨胀与汇率（英）

Services Inflation and theExchange Rate in Türkiye Tara Iyer, Agustin Roitman, James Walsh WP/26/6 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2026JAN IMF Working Paper EuropeanDepartment Services Inflation and the Exchange Rate inTürkiyePrepared byTara Iyer, Agustin Roitman, and James Walsh Authorized for distribution byKristina KostialJanuary 2026 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:Inflation in Türkiye has been high since 2021. This paper investigates the sources of this inflationand the impact of mitigating exchange rate volatility. Two main findings emerge. First, there has been a significantdivergence in inflation dynamics across CPI components since late 2021—in particular, services inflation hasexhibited more inertia than goods inflation, a result that stands out in both historical and cross-country contexts.The persistence in services inflation has been generally broad-based, with rental services playing an importantrole. Second, exchange rate shocks are estimated to have a smaller impact on services inflation than on goodsinflation. The peak services inflation response to a nominal exchange rate shock is estimated to be fairly muted,at just one-tenth the size of the shock. Indeed, since mid-2023, there has been an unusually sharp rise in therelative price of services, as goods inflation has been more sensitive to exchange rate movements. Thesefindings suggest that when inflation persistence—especially in services—is relatively high, inflation stabilizationmay require complementary policies to break inertia beyond a stable currency. Services InflationandtheExchange Rate Prepared byTara Iyer, Agustin Roitman, and James Walsh1 Table ofContents Changing Composition of Inflation.................................................................................................................3Relative Price of Services in Türkiye..............................................................................................................4Related Literature...........................................................................................................................................5 II. Inflation Inertia and the Exchange Rate Channel: Türkiye and International Experience.......................6 International Divergence in Services and Goods Inflation Inertia...................................................................7International Experience Tackling Inflation Inertia under Disinflation Programs............................................8 Model Estimation..........................................................................................................................................11Time Variation in Pass-Through...................................................................................................................13Sensitivity Analysis.......................................................................................................................................14 VI. Conclusion...................................................................................................................................................15 Appendix............................................................................................................................................................16 References.........................................................................................................................................................20 I. Introduction Türkiye is transitioning from a period of high inflation. Inflation surged to 85 percent y/y in late 2022, up fromunder 20 percent y/y before September 2021. Different CPI components were unevenly affected, both inmagnitude and timing. In particular, goods and services inflation responded differently.Goods inflation (red linein Figure 1a) initially surged as the exchange rate depreciated sharply and households faced falling real interestrates. Goods inflation then declined toward the end of 2022, coinciding with an extended period of lirastabilization. Services inflation (blue line) rose more steadily, following goods inflation with a lag, and did notdecline similarly when the exchange rate stabilized. Instead, it continued to rise—outpacing goods inflation andexhibiting greater persistence. A policy shift since mid-2023graduallyincreased the repo rate from 8.5 to 50 percent within less than a year byMarch 2024, accompanied by policies to simplify financial regulation and reduce fin