世界核能展望报告

Title: World Nuclear Energy OutlookProduced by: World Nuclear AssociationPublished: January 2026Report No. 2026/001 Cover image: EDF Energy © 2026 World Nuclear Association.Registered in England and Wales,company number 01215741 This report reflects the viewsof industry experts but does notnecessarily represent thoseof World Nuclear Association’sindividual member organizations. Contents Executive summary3 1.Review of nuclear energy51.1.How has nuclear generation developed in different regions?1.2.What contribution is nuclear making to energy supply?1.3. Whatreactorsmakeupthecurrentglobalnuclearfleet?1.4.What reactor sizes have been built?1.5.What additional nuclear capacity is likely in the short term?1.6.What are the drivers for current and future use of nuclear technology?1.7.The Declaration to Triple Nuclear Energy 2.Nuclear power technology development13 2.1.How are reactors categorized by size?2.2.How are reactors categorized based on coolant used?2.3.Applications of nuclear technology – grid electricity supply2.4.Applications of nuclear technology – non-electric nuclear applications 3.Global and national nuclear energy developments19 3.1.Recent international developments3.2.Countries with operable nuclear reactors3.3. Countrieswithfirstreactorsunderconstruction3.4.Prospective nuclear countries3.5.Other prospective nuclear countries 4.Assessment of overall global nuclear capacity804.1.Overall assessment of global nuclear capacity for 20504.2.Analysis of potential for extended operations4.3.Analysis of new capacity requirements4.4.Concluding remarks Appendix 1: Impact on demand for nuclear fuel services87 Appendix 2: Nuclear capacity or generation in energy scenarios90 References98 Executive summary Globalnuclearcapacitywouldexpandsignificantlyto2050ifthecontinuedoperationofexistingreactorsandthedeployment of new nuclear build meet targets set by governments for national nuclear capacity. When all operable,under construction, planned, proposed, and potential reactorsaare combined with government targets, the totalglobal capacity could reach 1446 GWebby 2050, surpassing the approximately 1200 GWe target established undertheDeclaration to Triple Nuclear Energy, which was launched at the COP28 meeting in Dubai in 2023. This indicatesstrong international support for nuclear energy as a core component of climate and energy security strategies. Key Findings 1.Global nuclear capacity outlook 4.Government targets are ambitious but not fullybacked by plans •Total capacity in 2050 could reach 1446 GWe by2050, surpassing the approximately 1200 GWetarget established under theDeclaration to TripleNuclear Energy. •The 542 GWe of additional capacity associated withgovernment targets beyond projects assessed asplanned, proposed or potential is not yet supportedbyidentifiedprojects,andthelevelofcommitmentthrough policy or other governmental measuresvariessignificantlyfromcountrytocountry. •Most growth to 2030 stems from reactors currentlyunder construction; planned projects drive expansionto 2035; and proposed, potential, and government-driven programmes account for the increase incapacity after 2035. •Several national targets (e.g., the USA’s 400 GWeby 2050) rely heavily on an expansion of nuclearcapacity where there is currently little or no ongoingconstruction,oridentifiedreactorsplannedorproposed for deployment. •Five countries — China, France, India, Russia, andthe USA — would represent nearly 980 GWe of totalglobal nuclear capacity in 2050. •Targets are predominately aspirational, and not allplanned or proposed reactors will inevitably proceedto construction. •Newcomer nuclear nations have ambitions for nuclearcapacity to reach 157 GWe by 2050, highlightingrising interest beyond traditional nuclear operators. 5.Energy demand trends reinforce the need fornuclear expansion 2.Reactor long-term operation could contribute morethan one-quarter of 2050 capacity Fivemajorglobaltrendswillsignificantlyinfluenceelectricity and energy demand by 2050: •Oftheglobalreactorfleetoperablein2025,189GWewould have operated for up to 60 years by 2050; upto an additional 213 GWe could continue to operate ifoperating lifetimes were extended up to 80 years. •Expanding supply to the 750 million people who lackaccess to electricity.•Meeting, in an equitable manner, the energy needsof the rising global population, projected to reach 9.8billion by 2050.•Acceleratingelectrification,inallsectorsoftheeconomy, as countries shift from fossil fuels to low-carbon electricity.•Growing consumption from new technologies,including digital infrastructure and data-intensiveprocesses.•Decarbonising hard to abate sectors of the economythrough alternative sources of low-carbon heat. •Historical performance data show no age-relateddecline in reactor capacity factors, and the averageage of permanently shut-down reactors has increased,reaching 48 years in 2024, with no indication of anupper limit on the duration of reactor operat