亚太地区能源转型的经济影响

The Economic John Spray, Sneha Thube and Alice Tianbo Zhang WP/26/1 progress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2026JAN IMF Working PaperAsia Pacific Department The Economic Implications of the Energy Transition in Asia-PacificJohn Spray, Sneha Thube and Alice Tianbo Zhang* Authorized for distribution by Florence Jaumotte, Lamin Leigh and Pritha Mitra IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:This paper examines the economic effects of the global energy transition and the largeuncertainty surrounding future fossil fuel demand on countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Under thepaper’s baseline, coal demand is expected to shrink by 15 percent by 2035, although depending onglobal policy ambition and technological uptake, the decline could be as large as 45 percent. Modelsimulations indicate that one-third of global coal capital stock and one-quarter of Asia-Pacific coal capitalstock could become stranded if the speed of the transition is underestimated. By contrast, global natural RECOMMENDED CITATION:Spray, John, Sneha Thube, and Alice Tianbo Zhang. 2026. The EconomicImplications of the Energy Transition in Asia-Pacific. IMF Working Paper No. 26/1. International Monetary WORKING PAPERS The Economic Implications of the Prepared by John Spray, Sneha Thube and Alice Tianbo Zhang Contents 1.Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................52.Context of the Global Energy Transition and its Impact on Asia Pacific ........................................73.Model simulations...............................................................................................................................104.Results .................................................................................................................................................135.Case study: Australia .........................................................................................................................156.Beyond the Model: Critical Minerals, Commodity Heterogeneity, and Technology.....................186.1Demand for Critical Minerals Offsets Losses ...................................................................................186.2Low Average Extraction Costs and Commodity Heterogeneity........................................................186.3Technological Change Impacts Demand..........................................................................................197.Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................22Annex I. Overview of the IMF-ENV model ......................................................................................................24Annex II. Additional Figures ............................................................................................................................25References ........................................................................................................................................................28 1.Introduction At the 28thConference of the Parties of the UNFCCC (COP28), policymakers made a historic call to transitionaway from fossil fuels in energy systems. A sharp contraction in the global demand for fossil fuels is primarilyexpected due to falling costs of renewable energy sources and global efforts to electrify and decarbonize. TheInternational Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that between 2022 and 2050, global coal use will decline by 46percent, oil by around 4 percent and natural gas increases by 5 percent under stated policies (IEA (2024) andIEA(2025)). Due to its high carbon content, demand for coal falls further under more ambitious IEA scenariosuntil 2050, and will likely fall faster than that for oil and natural gas, the latter of which is often considered a Renewable and low-carbon sources of energy have become increasingly competitive, driving significantgrowth in their use in the wave of electrification. Globally, between 2010-2024 the share of renewables (solarand wind) in total electricity generation has increased from 1.78 percent to 15 percent. During the same time,the installed electricity capacity of all renewables, including solar, wind, hydro, biofuels, geothermal andmarine energy, increased from 1.2 TW in 2010 to 4.4 TW in 2024 (IRENA 2025), surpassing the installedcapacity of both coal and natural gas in 2024, which are 2.2 and 2 TW respectively. The levelized cost of The ongoing global energy transition will have profound economic implications for countries around the world,but how large these effects will be and who they will impact is an open question. Should the e