中国：财政部宣布一系列适度支持措施

Asia Insights 20 January 2026 Economics - Asia ex-Japan China: The Ministry of Finance announces a slewof modest support measures Research Analysts Asia Economics Hannah Liu - NIHKhannah.liu@nomura.com+852 2252 1082 The Ministry of Finance (MoF) held a press conference today and announced a series ofmodest fiscal support measures. The announced policies include extending andoptimizing three existing loans interest rate subsidy programs for consumer, service-related businesses and equipment upgrades. The MoF also established a new loan Harrington Zhang - NIHKharrington.zhang@nomura.com+852 2252 2057 Ting Lu - NIHKting.lu@nomura.com+852 2252 1306 We view the latest MoF measures as targeted, moderate and largely expected. Themeasures largely follow up on initiatives outlined by theState Council at a regular meetingon 9 January, together with thelow-key monetary easing measures announced by thePBoC last week. We believe Beijing has become increasingly concerned about rapidlydeteriorating domestic fundamentals. Recent policy measures fall short of what is neededto stabilise growth, and Beijing will have to do considerably more in coming months to Targeting the beleaguered private sector and small enterprises The two new policies announced today mainly target private sectors. The loan interestsubsidy scheme providing 1.5pp rate reductions for SME fixed asset loans across 14 keyindustrial chains, including new energy, automotive and industrial robotics, with individualcaps of RMB50mn; and a RMB500bn guarantee programme where the National FinancingGuarantee Fund absorbs up to 40% of loan risk for private investment projects. This Strategic focus remains unchanged The emphasis on technology-intensive sectors like industrial robotics and mobilecommunications equipment suggests Beijing continues to channel support towards areasdeemed strategically important for long-term global competitiveness, rather than providing In our view, these policies also highlight Beijing's fundamental dilemma: while governmentcan reduce financing costs and risks, it cannot create profitable investment opportunitiesor restore private sector confidence in regulatory predictability. Ultimately, success hingesnot only on technical implementation but more on whether private enterprises, having We maintain our fiscal budget forecast for 2026The press conference today reiterated the need for a proactive fiscal policy for 2026, though we will have to wait until the NPC meeting in March for fiscal details. We continueto expect Beijing to maintain the official fiscal deficit ratio as 4.0% of GDP, which is abovethe long conventional 3.0%. We expect the central government special bond (CGSB)quota to be raised to RMB1.6trn in 2026 from RMB1.3trn in 2025 and RMB1trn in 2024.We expect another RMB0.5trn of CGSB quota, in addition to the RMB1.6trn, for state bank Production Complete: 2026-01-20 13:05 UTC forecast for central government funding for the trade-in subsidy to drop slightly toRMB250bn in 2026 from RMB300bn in 2025, with some expansion in the subsidized We also expect Beijing to continue its nationwide childbirth subsidy program, with theannual subsidy likely remaining around RMB90bn. The pre-school tuition fee exemptionwill likely double from RMB20bn in 2025 to RMB40bn in 2026 to cover an additionalsemester. However, the rapid fall in the newborn population in 2025 indicates such efforts We expect Beijing to raise monthly rural elderly pensions by RMB50 from the currentRMB240 at the 2026 NPC meeting, outpacing the RMB20 increase in 2025. However,even with this increase, the pension system would remain bifurcated, with rural elderlypensions accounting for just 8% of corporate pensioner incomes and 5% of government Several targeted fiscal programs to boost demand The MoF today extended and optimized three existing interest subsidy programs, andinitiated two new programs, namely a new interest subsidy program for SMEs and aspecial guarantee plan for corporate lending. Overall, we believe these five targeted fiscal Regarding the local government debt swap programme, the MoF revealed that averagedebt interest costs for local authorities have fallen by more than 2.5pp, which represents asignificant easing of the burden on local government and strengthens incentives for local #1 Interest subsidy program for consumer loans The MoF extended theinterest subsidy program for consumer loans, initially launched inSeptember 2025, through December 2026. The program offers a 1pp interest ratereduction for eligible household consumer loans, funded through existing fiscal budget.The updated policy expanded the scope of eligible consumer loan by including the credit The interest subsidy policy may have only a limited impact in boosting consumer loans.According to the PBoC, new short-term household loans totaled -RMB463bn in #2 Interest subsidy program for service-related business loansInterest subsidy for service-related business loanswi