第四季度盈利预览：再次更强更广泛

Q4 Earnings Preview: Stronger And Binky ChadhaChief Strategist Will the pattern of stronger and broader growth, which was evident in Q3, continuein Q4? In our reading, yes. With the macro backdrop remaining favorable amidst solidgrowth and a declining US dollar, and with no signs of a slowing for the seculargrowers, and other sectors also stepping up, we see S&P 500 earnings growth risingfrom 14% yoy in Q3 to 15% yoy in Q4. We also see 9 of the 11 sectors posting positivegrowth in Q4, up from 6 in Q3, and 2 in Q2. Our forecast implies earnings beats of Parag ThatteStrategist Karthik PrabhuStrategist Dag WorkayehuStrategist The Q3 earnings season not only marked an acceleration in S&P 500 earningsgrowth from 9.3% to a robust 14.2% but also a clear broadening beyond the Mega-Cap Growth (MCG) & Tech sector that had dominated for the last two years (Q3Earnings Takes: Stronger And Broader, Nov 2025). Broader growth makes the cyclemore resilient and is a key driver of our constructive outlook for 2026 (2026 US The bottom-up analyst consensus for Q4 is still climbing out of the Liberation Dayplunge and expects slower albeit broader growth.Consensus estimates for Q4were cut sharply after Liberation Day, as they were for Q2 and Q3. But even asearnings for Q2 and Q3 came in significantly above consensus, estimates for Q4have risen slowly, only recouping half of their plunge so far. The growth of 9% yoyexpected by the analyst consensus is one of the highest they have projected outside We see stronger and broader growth We employ a trend and cycle model of earnings for different stock and sectorgroups distinguished by their secular growth and cyclical characteristics. Weincorporate top-down drivers such as macro growth, the US dollar, oil and Asset Allocation nThe macro backdrop is favorable.DB’s economists expect US GDPgrowth of 0.6% (qoq, annualized). But this includes the mechanical dragfrom the government shutdown and a sharp slowing in aircraft shipments,both of which we see having only modest implications for S&P 500earnings. Excluding these, growth is expected to come in at 2%. Trackingestimates point to even higher growth, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow, forexample, at 2.7%. With growth outside the US at 3%, DB’s forecasts imply nMCG & Tech growth still extremely strong (29%).While growth broadenedacross sectors in Q3, it was not at the expense of MCG & Tech, whichremarkably saw an acceleration from 27% to 29% yoy. For Q4, we see theirearnings trajectory remaining intact and growth remaining solid at 29% nFinancials growth to slow from very elevated levels but remain strong(11.9%).Earnings growth for the Financials has been noisy in an extremelywide range of 5% to 25% since coming out of the pandemic. Growth wasat the upper end of the range in Q3 (25.7%) as several tailwinds converged(higher trading and capital markets activity, strong net interest income and nIndustrial Cyclicals growth to stay near trend (5.1%).Earnings for theIndustrial Cyclicals have been rising steadily since coming out of thepandemic along the middle of their long-term trend channel (6.2% trendrate). While the fundamental drivers of earnings growth are favorable, nConsumer Cyclicals growth to remain deeply negative (-10%).Even asgrowth in household spending remains strong, earnings growth forConsumer Cyclicals has been very weak as they grapple with higher pricesand the impact of tariffs. We see earnings growth for the group staying very nDefensives growth to pick up modestly (3.5%).Within the defensives,earnings growth for Managed Care has been extremely negative, and weexpect that to be the case in Q4 as well. But for the rest, growth was in themid-single digits in Q3, and we see it rising to the high-single digits (5% to nMaterials growth to rise on favorable base effects (11.5%).Earningsgrowth for Materials turned positive in Q3 (7.8%) for the first time in threeyears, largely due to favorable base effects. We see it strengthening further nEnergy earnings growth likely to turn positive, albeit barely, for the firsttime in almost three years as the drag from lower oil prices is offset byhigher refined product and natural gas prices.Oil prices were down asizable -17% yoy on average in Q4. However, natural gas prices are upsignificantly, and retail gasoline and diesel prices have been flat, likely 6 January 2026 Asset Allocation nStronger and broader.On the back of continued rapid growth for thesecular growers and other sectors also stepping up, we see S&P 500earnings growth rising from 14.2% yoy in Q3 to 15% yoy in Q4. We see 9 ofthe 11 sectors posting positive growth in Q4. Growth a year ago, i.e., for Q4 Set up for above-average beats during the earnings season.Our earnings growthforecast implies a beat of 5.5% over the consensus, a little above the long-runhistorical average of 4.9%. Results for the early reporters so far have been strong, Asset Allocation Asset Allocation Asset Allocation Source : Bloomberg