亚洲宏观洞察：宽松周期接近尾声

Easing cycle nearing an end Asia is nearing an end to its easing cycle in the absence of a significant economicdownturn and rebound in inflation. Our terminal rate forecasts may have been a tad Chief Economist Kaushik DasChief Economist Measured rate cuts are likely by BI, BSP and BoT, in the face of tepid fiscal support(a drag) despite FX volatility. The BoK faces the double trouble of elevated concerns Yi Xiong, Ph.D.Chief Economist In contrast, China faces the challenging task of boosting sentiment with regard toits housing market, complementing its efforts to boost domestic demand, while theRMB may see sustained appreciation, supported by FX internationalization efforts, Junjie HuangEconomist A prolonged pause by RBI, BNM and MAS is likely, in response to above trendgrowth and a rebound in inflation, while Vietnam leads Asia's growth, with its As in 2025, the US remains as the potential source of policy shocks in Asia. Risksto US rates are skewed towards more reductions, particularly given the scope forthe new Fed leadership to lean more dovish. Moreover, sustained expansion in AI- There is also the matter of geopolitics. Although the recent event in Venezuela hasnot prompted changes to our outlook, as it has not (yet) pointed to a broadening ofLAC instability and/or significant changes in the global oil outlook, it still calls forvigilance. Although the US National Security Strategy appears to prioritize effortsto "reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to restore American preeminence in Overview China may still achieve the government's growth target of 5% in 2025, givenrebound in activities in December, while this year will see concerted policy effortsto boost domestic demand and property market sentiment. The Renminbi's Hong Kong's consumption continued its recovery, amid a recovery in the housing Assuming DB's growth and inflation forecast of 6.5% and 4.3%, respectively, asimple Taylor Rule formula points to a prolonged pause at 5.25 in 2026, as the fiscaldeficit stabilizes at around 4.5% of GDP. While we remain optimistic about a trade For Indonesia, BI may be compelled to wait until March (vs. January) to ease aspressure on the rupiah has yet to abate, while fiscal support remains limited, With GDP growth likely to remain above the sensitive 4% mark, at 4.5% in 2026,BNM policy rate will remain unchanged in 2026, with the next move likely to be a The BSP is likely to deliver a 25bps cut in February, marking an end to the currenteasing cycle, as inflation rebounds, despite risks to growth tilted to the downside. The MAS is likely to maintain its monetary policy settings unchanged this year, Despite a pullback in domestic demand, resilient exports allows for a more targetedmeans of supporting the vulnerable, with the BoK on hold for longer, as the With Taiwan's growth relying mostly on (semi) exports, the CBC may ease to boostdomestic demand. In contrast to South Korea, Taiwan's housing market has cooled, Another rate cut by the BoT is likely, after a 25bps rate cut in December, amid apersistent negative output gap and weak public spending. While export growthremained more resilient than expected, import growth outpaced it, while tourism After posting an annual GDP growth at 8% in 2025, as per our forecast, Vietnam'sinfrastructure plans pose upside risks to our 2026 growth forecast of 7.7%. Given China Yi Xiong nChina's economic activity decelerated in November 2025, driven by dropsin retail sales and services, and subdued fixed asset investment. However,earlyDecember indicators showed improvement in manufacturing,services, and construction PMIs, alongside increased leisure activities, nDespite a Q4 slowdown, China aims for a 5% growth target in 2025,anticipating a December rebound. Policy support is expected in early 2026,with an emphasis on boosting domestic consumption and investment,alongside measures to address the property sector's negative sentiment. nNovember saw a positive shift in inflation, with CPI climbing to 0.7% YoYdue to rebounding food prices. The Central Economic Work Conference(CEWC) for 2026 emphasized an expansionary fiscal stance and set"achieving price recovery" as a key monetary policy goal, supporting a nThe Renminbi (RMB) showed significant strength in late 2025, appreciatingagainst the USD, JPY, and Euro. This trend is expected to continue,supported by China's strong trade competitiveness, capital inflows due toAIand stock market growth,reflation,and accelerated RMB Activities started to improve China's economic activity decelerated further in November.Our gauge ofeconomic activities slowed to 3.0% YoY in November, down from 4.1% in Octoberand 4.8% in Q3. The slowdown was primarily driven by a 1.6ppt drop in retail salesgrowth (owing to abating impact of trade-in subsidies) and a 0.4ppt drop in servicesoutput growth. Despite the rebound in exports (+6% YoY), industrial production fell Early indicators suggest economic activities may have sta