中国经济：温和货币政策宽松信号

Signal of moderate monetary easing Bingnan YE, Ph.D(852) 3761 8967yebingnan@cmbi.com.hk China’s outstanding social financing growth exhibited a notable decelerationtoward the end of 2025. This trend, coupled with a sharp slowdown in M1 supplygrowth,underscores a cooling in economic activity and private sectorconfidence. There is a persistent economic imbalance between robust supplyand weak demand as the corporate sector remains the primary engine of creditexpansion and the household sector continues to prioritize deleveraging overnew borrowings. In response, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has signaleda shift toward a more accommodative stance and additional property stimulusfor 2026, characterized by cuts in structural re-lending facilities and minimum Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hk Credit and M1 growth slowed down as economic activities weakened. Outstanding social financing growth continued todecline from 8.7% at end-3Q25 to 8.5% at end-November and 8.3% at end-December, indicating aslowdown of broad credit growth. Outstanding government bond financinggrowthmoderated from 18.8%at end-November to 17.1%at end-December as the fiscalexpansion momentum softened. Outstanding RMBloan growth remained unchanged at 6.4% at the year end, but new RMBloan financing dropped 8.1% in December with the loan funding to businesssector up 118.4% and that to household sector remaining negative. New Source: Wind, CMBIGM Sectordivergence showed economic imbalance.The loan datarevealed a stark economic imbalance with robust supply and weakdemand. The corporate sectorremained the primary engine of creditgrowth, partially supported by the low-cost special loans targetingspecificsectors.In sharp contrast,the household sector remained in thedeleveraging trap withmore debt repaymentsthan new borrowings.Thehousehold sector’s reluctance to borrow is partially due to the balance-sheet effect following the property market slump.With housing prices downover 35% in major citiessince 3Q21,the erosion of household wealth andconfidencehas severely dampened consumer spending and reflationarymomentum. Unlike the US subprime or Eurozone sovereign debt crises,Chinese households instead of banks bear the primary burden of asset Source: Wind, CMBIGM Central bank signaled moderate easing ahead.After the credit datarelease, PBOC officials held a press conference yesterday to outline themonetary policy direction this year.First, the PBOC announced immediaterate cuts by 25bps to structural re-lending facilities and massive supplyexpansion of these facilities, indicating stronger policy support to targetedsectors. These structural re-lending facilities with lower rates than generalre-lending facilities mainly aim at incentivizing banks to expand creditsupplyto private enterprises,tech companies,green development,agriculture, elderly care and other targeted sectors. By focusing on thosespecific sectors, the central bank tries to influence the allocation of creditsupply to make it in line with top leaders’ target of high-quality developmentand common prosperity.We believe the integration of these structuralmonetary policy tools with fiscal policy such as interest subsidies and creditguaranteescreates a powerful policy multiplier to support China’stechnology innovation and green development.Second,the PBOCannouncedlowering the minimum downpayment ratio for commercial Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:MoF, CMBIGM Source:MoF, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Source:Wind, CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwithrespect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be,directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after thedate of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in th