全球储能：中国钠离子电池成本突破

Global Energy Storage: China sodium-ion battery cost Na-ion battery cells (SIB), which combine two of the most abundant materialson earth (Na and Fe), posted a sharp decline in cost (24%) in 2025 and with thepotential to disrupt LFP batteries in ESS.The cost of sodium-ion batteries fell 24% in2025 from US$75/kWh to US$57/kWh. While sodium-ion batteries remain 50% or c. US$20/kWh more expensive than LFP cells, costs are falling rapidly. We expect substantial(50%) cost reduction within the next two years as scaling accelerates and energy density Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Hengliang Zhang+852 2123 2629hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Sodium-ion batteries now boast a 10,000-life cycle, energy density of 175Wh/kg,fast charging and low-temp performance.Sodium-ion battery life cycle has grown from1-2,000 cycles to over 8,000 cycles in the past three years (vs. 2-3,000 for LFP). Longerlife cycles will lower LCOE for ESS projects, enabling SIB to capture a meaningful share ofESS growth. On energy density, CATL leads with its Naxtra Battery reaching 175Wh/kg, upfrom 160Wh/kg in the first-generation product (vs. 350Wh/kg for NMC and 210Wh/kg for Sodium-ion battery (SIB) shipments doubled last year to 9GWh.Energy storageaccounts for over 50% of total demand, followed by micro-mobility (20%) and automotivestart-stop (12%). High-frequency data indicates that an inflection point for SIB adoptionhas arrived, with continuous announcements of 10–20GWh/month SIB battery plants Based on announced projects, SIB capacity is projected to rise from 20GWh toat least 125GWh by 2030.Including projects announced but with undisclosedtimelines, total capacity could hit 475GWh (5-10% of global LiB capacity).BYD isbuilding 30GWh of sodium-ion battery capacity in Xuzhou, China, while CATL began massproduction this year but has not disclosed its capacity. Other key players with >5GWh CATL remains the technology leader in sodium-ion batteries. We expect majorannouncements this year.CATL, BYD, Great Power, HiNa Battery, and DFD have achievedmass production of SIB. CATL stands out with the highest energy density of 175Wh/kgand one of the longest life cycles (10,000 cycles). In the supply chain, CATL has lockedin Ronbay (not covered) as its primary cathode supplier, securing over 60% of annualprocurement for the next four years, plus preferential pricing for volumes above 500,000 BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We expect commercialization of sodium-ion batteries to be one of the major advances in battery technology in 2026. Lowcost, high cycle times and better charge retention in cold weather conditions make Na-ion batteries ideas for ESS. The majoradvantage of Na-ion batteries is that they combine two of the most abundant elements in the earth’s crust, namely Na andFe. While costs remain higher than LFP right now they are falling quickly as production volumes scale up and energy densityimproves. Over the next 2-3 years we believe it is possible that Na-ion batteries could become cheaper than LFP and with alonger cycle time, they could become a more cost-efficient solution for ESS. This has huge implications. Firstly, it could mean amore widespread deployment of batteries as they become cheaper and cheaper. Secondly they could disrupt the LFP market VALUATION COMPS TABLE DETAILS Last year marked a significant breakthrough cost reduction of sodium-ion battery (SIB) development which has implicationsfor the battery industry. Based on component pricing in China, we estimate that SIB costs declined by about 30% during theyear. This downward trend suggests that sodium-ion batteries could achieve cost parity with the widely adopted LFP chemistryas early as 2026, a possibility reinforced by the recent increase in lithium carbonate spot prices. With lithium-ion batteryprices expected to rise in 2026, we anticipate an acceleration in SIB commercialization. We project SIB costs to drop belowNMC levels by 2026 and below LFP by 2027, ultimately delivering a $15–20/kWh advantage over LFP. Starting next year, as DEMAND TO MORE THAN DOUBLE IN 2025 Recent high-frequency data in the sodium-ion battery industry indicates growing momentum behind this technology. The firstkey indicator is the announcement of new sodium-ion battery production plants. Since 2024, monthly announcements haveaveraged 10-20GWh of planned capacity. While not all these projects will materialize, some are non-binding, tracking theseannouncements provides a useful gauge of commercialization progress. It’s worth noting that most projects involve private The second data point which implies growing momentum is the monthly production volume of key sodium-ion batterycomponents in China, particularly electrolytes and anode materials linked to sodium-ion batteries. We’ve observed a clear According to our analysis, sodium-ion battery demand to more than doubles last year, reach