与SF分享置换，以帮助拓展新市场

new markets Shareswap with SF to helpexpandnew Target PriceHK$13.40Up/Downside14.1%Current PriceHK$11.74 J&T andSF (6936 HK / 002352 CH, NR)announced a share-swap agreementthis morning. We believe itis an important strategic co-operationthatallowsboth companies to leverage their valuable resources to achieve synergies.Management arranged a conference call this morning.Key takeaways:Inoverseasmarkets, J&T can leverage SF’s first-mile,cross-border line haul,warehousesand parcel lockerstofurther growits express delivery network in China LogisticsWayne FUNG, CFA(852) 39000826waynefung@cmbi.com.hk Subscription of SF sharesby J&T:J&T will subscribe 225.9mn H-sharesissued by SF at a price of HK$36.74/shr (totalconsideration: HK$8.3bn).The subscription price representsa3.9% premium to the closing price on14 Jan.The subscription price is equivalent to ~13x 2026E P/E(based on Shareholding Structure Subscription of J&T shares by SF:SF willsubscribe 822mn B sharesissued by J&Tat a price of HK$10 (~14.8% discount to the closing price on14 Jan).Based on our earnings forecast, the subscriptionpricerepresents Long lock-up period.Both companies agreed on a five-year lock-upperiod. We think the long lock-up period reflects the strongcommitment from Maintain BUY withunchangedSOTP-basedTPofHK$13.4.We continueto like J&T, due to (1)itsunmatched competitive edge and market sharegain potential in SEA (32.8% in 1H25), (2) good potential in new marketssuchas Brazil and the Middle East,and(3)potential new business Source: FactSet Related reports: J&T Express (BUY)–Takeaways fromBangkok investor call–12 Dec 2025 (link) J&T Express (BUY)–Parcel growth inSEA further accelerated in 3Q25–14 Oct2025 (link)J&T Express (BUY)–1H25profit a mixedbag but growth story well intact–1 Sep2025 (link)J&T Express (BUY)–Impressive parcelvolume growth in SEA–9 Jul 2025 (link) Valuation Weapply different EV/EBITDA multiples for different markets to better reflect theirrespective growth outlook.Wemaintainour SOTP-based TPofHK$13.4. SEA:Weassignatarget multipleof14x, which is~80% premiumtotheaverageofglobal integrated logistics operators (7.7x). Ourlarger targetpremium is to reflect China:Weassign atargetmultiple of 6.5x,in line with themajor peers.We expectthe “anti-involution” campaign will lend support to the valuation. New markets:We assign a targetmultiple unchanged at 20x.Our valuationpremium is to reflect the strong growth potential in the Latin America and the Middle Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analystwho is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personalviews about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of thisreport; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM Ratings BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock withpotential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM :Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expectedto perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 months Address:45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any inve