解决博茨瓦纳的增长瓶颈

Addressing Growth Yomna Gaafar, Alexis Meyer Cirkel, MarinaMendesTavares,and Ann-Alice Ticha SIP/2025/160 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMFstaff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed onNovember 4,2025. This paper is 2025DEC IMFSelected IssuesPaper African Department Addressing Growth Bottlenecks in BotswanaPrepared byYomna Gaafar, Alexis Meyer Cirkel, MarinaMendesTavares, and Ann-Alice Ticha Authorized for distribution byÉdouardMartin IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it was ABSTRACT:WhileBotswana achieved strong post-independencegrowth supportedby prudentmacroeconomic management and diamond revenues, economic performancehasweakenedover thepasttwodecades, withslower growth, persistentlyhigh unemployment, and erosion of fiscal and external buffers.Declining globaldemand for diamonds hasheightened theurgency of economic diversification.This noteanalyzesBotswana’s growth constraints using a dual approach.Firm-level evidence fromthe 2023 World Bank RECOMMENDED CITATION:Gaafar, Y., Meyer Cirkel, A., Tavares, M. M., & Ticha, A.-A. (2025). Addressinggrowth bottlenecks in Botswana (IMF Selected Issues Paper No.2025/160). International Monetary Fund. SELECTED ISSUESPAPERS Addressing Growth Botswana Prepared byYomna Gaafar, Alexis Meyer Cirkel, MarinaMendesTavares,and Ann-Alice Ticha A.Introduction 1.For a few decades after its independence, Botswana achieved substantial economic and socialprogress, underpinned bystrong institutions, political stability, and prudent macroeconomicmanagement.Within a single generation, it became one of the richest countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, with aper capita income surpassing South Africa’s since the early 2000s. The countryconsistently ranks among the 2.However, development momentum has significantly slowed over the pasttwo decades, and thecountry is now experiencing a sharp downturn that represents a critical turning point for its economy.Since the mid-2000s, growth has declined significantly, while unemployment has increased to very high levels, 3.Botswana’s economic model has remained highly concentrated in the capital-intensivediamond sector, with limited diversification into other productive industries.This reliance on asingle commodity has increased the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks and contributed to volatility 4.This Selected Issues Paper (SIP) contributes to the policy dialogue on Botswana’s growth trajectory by identifying the key impediments facing domestic firms and the broader private sector.Using a dual approach—combining firm-level evidence with cross-country structural reform benchmarking—theanalysis seeks to diagnose where reform efforts could generate the highest payoffs. The objective is to inform a 5.First, the analysis adopts a bottom-up perspective by utilizing data from the 2023 World BankEnterprise Survey (WBES).This firm-level survey provides critical insights into the daily constraints finance, corruption, land acquisition difficulties, and unreliable electricity supply—that firms identify as theirmost binding constraints. Thismicro perspective captures perceptions and experiences directly from economic 6.Second, the paper applies a macroapproach, leveraging data from a broad set of countries toestimate potential growth payoffs from structural reforms.The empirical methodology developed by Budinaet al. (2023) assesses theimpact of structural reforms acrossemerging markets. Using structural gapanalysis relative to reform frontiers inemerging and advanced economies,the framework identifies areas whereBotswana lags—particularly in labor 7.Taken together, these complementary approaches provide a more robust analysis ofBotswana’s growth bottlenecks.The WBES-based diagnostics identify symptoms experienced bybusinesses, while the macro-structural framework allows to apply broad cross-country estimates of growth B.Falling Economic Complexity 8.Over the past two decades, the Botswana’s Economic Complexity Index (ECI) for Botswana(as assessed by the Harvard Growth Lab) has deteriorated notably.The country has slid from around rank92 (2000) to rank 102 (2023) on the global ECI rankings, with a current index value near–0.67, weakening itsposition in terms of product space diversification among economies worldwide. This decline reflects a the limited development of industrial capabilities. Without progress in diversifying into adjacent ‘complex’industries, the continued dominance of a single commodity sector risks entrenching economic vulnerability, 9.A falling ECI, as measured by Harvard University's Growth Lab, indicates that a country isproducing and exporting a narrower and less sophisticated set of goods over time.The ECI is based onthe diversity and ubiquity