原油油轮年度展望

Annual Outlook on Crude Oil Tanker Market原油油轮年度展望 武嘉璐Wu Jialu从业资格号Qualification No：F03100682投资咨询号Consulting No.：Z0021085桂晨曦Gui Chenxi从业资格号Qualification No：F3023159投资咨询号Consulting No：Z0013632 MoreEnglishReportsonCITICFuturesInsights：https://www.citicfutures.com 摘要Abstract 2025 crude-tanker market experienced a strong year, but with recent sharp correction.The Middle East–Far East TD3C route averaged USD 57.5k/day, up 64.7 % YoY, while seaborne crudedemand grew solidly. Fleet supply stayed tight; sanctions and floating storage were the short-term swingfactors. Global crude-tanker capacity rose only 0.7 %.Reviewing fleet size, age profile, sanction list,floating barrels, sailing speed and canal transits, we see a persistently snug mid-term supply picture, withsanctions and storage adding near-term tension. The Venezuelan affair is a modest immediate negative,but geopolitical risk premium underpins freight fundamentals. 2026 outlook: volatile but still tilted to the upside.Freight has corrected sharply, yet globalliftings should rebound after the Middle-East Ramadan, and sanctioned-driven tonnage scarcity will linger.We expect 2026 to trade choppy-to-firm. Track geopolitical flare-ups—they can jolt volatility. Key risks: tariff policy, geopolitical conflict, extreme weather. 2025年原油油轮市场表现偏强，近期则显著回调。中东-远东的TD3C航线日租金均值达到5.75万美元/天，同比增64.7%。原油海运需求量整体实现较强劲增长。油轮船队供应偏紧，制裁及储油成为短期关键变量。2025年全球原油油轮船队规模同比增0.7%。我们从船队规模、船龄结构、制裁影响、浮舱运力、船舶航速和运河通行六方面进行梳理，认为中期供给偏紧，短期制裁和储油都将推升供给紧张。委内瑞拉事件短期直接轻微利空油轮航运市场，但地缘风险溢价仍将支撑运价基本面。 2026年原油油轮航运市场或仍将震荡偏强。短期油轮航运市场出现了较为明显的回调，但考虑到全球油运需求整体将在中东斋月后反弹，叠加制裁加剧背景下船队供应仍将偏紧，我们认为2026年原油油轮航运市场整体仍将震荡偏强。仍需关注地缘事件对市场的影响和冲击，油轮航运市场或仍面临较强波动。 风险提示：关税政策、地缘政治冲突、极端天气扰动 Content目录 2. Demand：Freight Rate May Remain at a High Level in General................................4 3.1 Fleet Growth Remains Sluggish, and the Fleet is Aging Seriously.........................................................................53.2 Sanctioned tanker fleet expands, floating-storage tonnage rises...........................................................................53.3 Ships sail at High Speeds, Attention Should be Paid to Whether Ships Will Resume Sailing in Suez Canal.........6 4. Venezuela situation: U.S. sanctions tightening, exports likely to dip in the near....7 4.1 Venezuelan exports are transported mainly by VLCCs; 120 tankers regularly call at the country’s ports..............74.2 Tanker Market Suffer in the Short Term, but Uncertainty Remains in the Floating Capacity and the Volume.........7 5.Outlook: crude-tanker market expected to rebound after the current correction.....8 3.1运力规模增速偏低，船队老化现象严重................................................................................................................103.2受制裁油轮规模抬升，浮舱运力整体增加............................................................................................................103.3船舶航速较高，关注后续运河通行量是否反弹.....................................................................................................11 4.委内瑞拉事件：美国制裁收紧，近期出口或下行............................................................12 4.1委内瑞拉原油出口主要依靠VLCC，承运船队规模达120艘。...........................................................................124.2事件影响：短期利空油运市场，但后续浮舱和运量恢复仍有不确定性.................................................................12 5.后续展望：预计原油油轮市场回调后仍将反弹................................................................13 Charts图表 Chart 1：Major Crude Tanker Daily Earnings............................................................................................4Chart 2：Crude and Clean Tanker Fleet Growth.......................................................................................5Chart 3：Distribution of VLCC Age............................................................................................................5Chart 4：Seasonality of Crude Tanker Storage.........................................................................................6Chart 5：Sanctioned Tanker Fleet.............................................................................................................6Chart 6：Composition of Ships Transporting Venezuela’s Oil.................................................................7图表1：主要油轮船型日度租金走势..........................................................................................................9图表2：原油和成品油轮船队规模增速....................................................................................................10图表3：VLCC船龄分布..........................................................................................................................10图表4：原油油轮海上浮舱量季节性........................................................................................................11图表5：被制裁油轮规模走势...................................................................................................................11图表6：运输委内瑞拉油品的船舶构成对比...........................................................................................12 Related Reports报告推荐* Click on the hyperlin