氧化镁：一种关键矿物？耐火材料市场的供应趋势与发展

Sustainability Meets Intelligence SHAPING THE FUTURE OF REFRACTORIES Magnesia: A Critical Mineral? Supply trends & developmentsfor the refractoriesmarket Mike O’Driscoll, Director, IMFORMED 28 October 2025 Networking & knowledge for the industrial minerals business •Extensive experience & reputation•Launched in January 2015•Specialising in conferences &market research in: ➢Industrial Minerals Supply/Demand➢Magnesia➢Refractory Minerals➢Mineral Recycling➢Salt➢Fluorine➢China➢India➢Oilfield Minerals Sponsorship/Exhibit/Registration EnquiriesMaria Bernardmaria@imformed.com| T: +44 (0) 208 153 0035 Programme/Speaker EnquiriesMike O’Driscollmike@imformed.com| T: +44 (0)7985 986 255 CALL FOR PAPERS | SPONSOR/EXHIBIT OPTIONS | EARLY BIRD RATES Outline 1.Magnesia in refractory context 2.Supply overviewa.Sources b.Gradesc.Productiond.Trade 3.Changing times & trendsa.China b.Ex-China investmentc.Alternative sourcesd.Decarbonisation/Recyclinge.“Criticality” Above:Químicadel Rey,Ocampo, Coahuila. Capacity:90,000 tpa MgO; 64,000 tpaMgSO4; 780,000 tpa Na2SO4. Right:IndustriasMagnelec,Ramos Arizpe, Coahuila.Capacity: 5,000 tpa fused MgO;10,000 electrical grade MgO;5,300 special powders 4.Outlook Limited primary sources •Limited commerciallydeveloped mineralresources •Risky overreliance onsupply/trade from limitedoverseas sources, eg.China; logistics stress;vulnerability spotlighted byCovid-19 pandemic,Russia-Ukraine war,China-Taiwan? 1. Context: Refractory minerals supply chain Steel (58-70%)10-15kg/tLadle70t 1 month Nonferrous metal3kg/tCopper kiln150t3 months Cement1kg/tRotary kiln250t 10 months GlassMeltfurnace4kg/t500-8,500t 10yrAlsoCeramicsCalcined mineralsPetrochem.Incinerators 2. Supply overview: sources The world of magnesiaA world of diversity 2. Supply overview: sources Natural mineral (90%)Magnesite (MgCO3)Cryptocrystalline (or Microcrystalline)Macrocrystalline (or crystalline) Synthetic MgO derivatives (10%)Seawater | Salt lakes | Brines Other natural MgO minerals BischofiteMgCl2.6H2OCarnalliteKMgCl3.6H2OKieseriteMgSO4.H2ODolomiteCaCO3.MgCO3BruciteMg(OH)2HuntiteMg3Ca(CO3)4HydromagnesiteMg4(OH)2(CO3).4H2OSerpentinite(Mg,Fe)3Si2O5(OH)4 OlivineMg2SiO4Dunite>90% olivine NesquehoniteMgCO3.3H2OPericlaseMgO Scale of magnesia grade processing2. Supply overview: grades 2.Supply overview:Grade & marketdiversity 70-80%consumed inrefractories 2. Supply overview: sourcesWorld magnesite resources & production 2. Supply overview: sourcesWorld magnesite resources & production FM ingots cooling at HaichengZhonghaoMagnesite, Haicheng,Liaoning, China PRCO’s Kamaduo Magnesite Mine, Tibet, China at altitude of 4,500 metres; sourceof high purity DBM export for new PRCO MgO-C plant in Kentucky, USA. 2. Supply overview: sourcesRefractory grade magnesia (DBM & FM) •Interest in developing alt. sources ex-China, evenas captive sources•Ex-China magnesia producers strengtheningresources, capabilities, vertical integration forsupply security, strategy rethink•Interest in trade and developing ex-China crudeMgCO3sources/options•Dolomite/Serpentinite/Olivine/Dunite resurgence?•As co-products from other processes/mining waste •Overall, few primary refractory DBM, fewer FM producers ex-China*•Mostly natural source & integrated with refractories production/owner•Only 3 independents, which are synthetic 2. Supply overview: tradeWorldmagnesia exports 2024 CCM/DBM/FM 2. Supply overview: tradeWorldmagnesia imports 2024 CCM/DBM/FM 2. Supply overview: tradeChinesemagnesia exports 2024 2. Supply overview: tradeChinesemagnesia export trends 2023-2025 2. Supply overview: tradeChinesemagnesia export trends H1 2024-2025 China high-grade DBMdeclined by 4% H1 2024-H1 2025. China FMSince peaking in Dec.2024, prices declined by18%, returning to mid-2024 levels. 3. Changing times & trendsChina: oversupply | sector reform •Liaoning’s magnesite reserves of 2.51bn tonnes, 84% of China,and 22.4% of the world.•>1,000 magnesite material production enterprises in Liaoning•2023 Liaoning output: 19m t MgO refractory materials; 380,000 tMgO chemicals; 1.1m2building materials•70% for domestic market, 30% export markets Haimag’s magnesite testfacilties& new250k tpa flash calciner 3. Changing times & trendsChina: oversupply | sector reform •Liaoning govt. measures to integrate & control magnesite oremining & processing: ➢2020:"Provincial Magnesite Mining Rights Integration Plan" reducedmining rights from 114 to 56; large/medium-sized mines shareincreased from 18.4% to 43.9%.➢2023:"Implementation Opinions on Promoting the High-qualityDevelopment of the Magnesite Industry" & "SpecialRectification Plan for the Magnesite Industry in LiaoningProvince".➢2024:only 35% mining capacity permitted➢2024:MgO plant capacity reduction plan implemented to reduce by30%-applies to all MgO processing facilities: 1t newMgO:1.4told MgO eliminated; for CCM/DBM 200k tpa kiln 1t new:1.2 old;for MgO flotation 1t new:1t old.➢2024-25:elimina