全球不良信贷周报

GLOBALDistressed Credit Weekly Wrap Due to the upcoming holiday season, the next Global Distressed Credit Weekly Wrap will be published on Jan. 9, 2026.Happy holidays from PitchBook | LCD. European Distressed Credit Outlook:Defaults to decline; workouts get tenser Inside Nine global corporate defaults in November – S&Ppage 6Private credit downgrade/default outlook – DBRSpage 6Bankruptcy Beatpage 7Weekly Wrap: Rough sleddingpage 15European Leveraged Finance Surveypage 17News from the European deskpage 22US HY bond index distressed subset grows, OAS widenspage 23 In 2025, the European distressed market showcasedmanoeuvres that probably impressed the most seasonedrestructuring professionals in the US. Indeed, Europe isturning out to be far less tranquil than lenders and investorsanticipated a couple of years ago. •2025 was marked by a number of aggressive non-pro rataLMEs and a backlash against cooperation agreements. •Most of the defaults that occurred in 2025 had been pricedin for months, but sharp declines in credits previouslytrading near par have unsettled investors. longer to emerge in Europe than in the US, but in his view, it ismore a case of being at a different point in the development ofthese transactions. “While some European transactions haveresulted in extreme outcomes, the number of aggressive non-pro rata LMEs actually executed remains small,” he noted. •Analyst forecasts point to slightly falling default rates in2026. •Triple-C rated borrowers are an area of concern for the yearahead. “The gloves are off, and there is often no pretence ofnegotiation,” commented a lawyer on the state of play in themarket, adding that “some lenders just do the deal they wantto do and accept the litigation risk,” while dissenting creditorsare quicker to go to court. “Many considerations come into play and creditors andcompanies must weigh the litigation risks of an aggressiveLME, and the final transaction often ends up being lessextreme than initially envisaged,” noted Lois Deasey, also apartner in Weil’s global restructuring practice. Several restructurings were tense — such as the processesforVictoria PLC, a UK flooring products company thatcompleted an uptier exchange in August, andArdagh Group,which saw its restructuring plans challenged in US courtsfirst by Arini and Canyon, and later by Carronade CapitalManagement and Deutsche Bank. But the highest-profilecases in Europe centre around Swiss-based vending machineoperatorSelecta, and Dutch lingerie retailerHunkemoller.These out-of-court restructurings bore many hallmarks ofso-called “creditor-on-creditor violence” whereby certainlender groups are pitted against each other, according tothe aggrieved lenders that decided to seek redress throughthe courts. The change of mood in Europe did not go unnoticed. Currentliability management exercise (LME) trends in the US showa shift from aggressive-style deals towards more benigntransactions, while in Europe the opposite is true, RBCBlueBay Asset Management commented in an Insight reporton Nov. 1. “Europe has got worse than the US, based on the transactionsor attempted transactions we have seen,” the same legalsource added. Fear factor According to Arvid Trolle, partner and co-founder of NjordPartners, the fear of hostile behaviour in restructurings is sofar greater than the volume of such activity indicates, thoughhe adds that “the step up of these cases now in Europe showsthe slight increased level of pressure — the more fraughtstakeholders are, the more aggressively they behave, andthey might care less about relationships for future deal flow.” Selecta’s so-called “excluded holders” — which includeAlgebris, CQS, Deltroit, Faros Point Capital and Fineco AssetManagement — have filed a complaint in New York againstthe company and a group of lenders, challenging the way thead hoc group of first-lien noteholders got the upper hand in anuptier exchange. The group of “excluded holders” takes aimat the cooperation agreement, alleging multiple violations ofprovisions of US antitrust law. Matt Benson, partner in Weil’s global restructuring practice,noted that the recent run of non-pro rata LMEs took a little Meanwhile, a group of Hunkemoller creditors are in a NewYork court challenging the uptier transaction carried out in2024, and last month opened proceedings in a London courtagainst the follow-up implementation measures taken during2025 by hedge fund Redwood Capital Management. A sourceexplained that the UK case hinges around the concept of an‘abusive majority’ — that is, whether Redwood promotedits own special interest rather than the common interest ofthe class. sometimes years before any real catalyst emerges, which canlimit opportunities.” Lois Deasey pointed out that co-ops can be unhelpful: “Thoseoutside a co-op often fear being disadvantaged and spendsignificant time trying to gain entry, making co-ops a majordistraction.” Courts weigh in Judges will now have the opportunity to shape the de