2024年回顾：气候驱动的全球可再生能源资源和能源需求

Climate-driven Global Renewable EnergyResources and Energy Demand Cover photo: Pexels. © World Meteorological Organization and International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), 2025 The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMOand IRENA. Short extracts from this publication may be reproduced without authorization, provided thatthe complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce ortranslate this publication (articles) in part or in whole should be addressed to: Chair, Publications BoardWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO)7 bis, avenue de la PaixP.O. Box 2300CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 84 03Email:publications@wmo.int International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)Masdar City, Abu Dhabi, P.O. Box 236 Email:publications@irena.org NOTE The designations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of anyopinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariats of WMO, the United Nations or IRENA concerning thelegal status of any country, area or territory, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of itsborders. The depiction and use of boundaries, geographic names and related data on maps and in lists,tables, documents and databases herein are not warranted to be error-free and do not imply officialendorsement or acceptance by WMO, the United Nations or IRENA. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommendedby WMO or IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised. 2024 Year in Review:Climate-driven Global Renewable Energy Resources and Energy Demand Contents Executive summary ............................................................................................. 5 1.1Introduction ............................................................................................. 101.2Indicators and methodological approach ....................................................... 121.3Global overview ........................................................................................ 131.4Key climate observations for 2024 ............................................................... 141.5Wind power capacity factor ......................................................................... 151.6Solar power capacity factor......................................................................... 181.7Hydropower proxy ..................................................................................... 211.8Energy demand proxy ................................................................................ 23 Regional perspective ............................................................................... 25 2.1Africa ...................................................................................................... 272.2Asia ........................................................................................................ 292.3Central and South America ......................................................................... 31 3.Adaptation to climate variability with seasonal forecasts........................ 333.1Seasonal forecast of wind power capacity factor ............................................ 34 3.2Seasonal forecast of solar power capacity factor ............................................ 353.3Seasonal forecast of hydropower proxy ........................................................ 353.4Seasonal forecast of energy demand proxy ................................................... 35 Conclusions and implications................................................................... 384.1Climate drivers of energy variability in 2024.................................................. 38 4.2Regional highlights and insights................................................................... 394.3Role of seasonal forecasts .......................................................................... 394.4From monitoring to action: Operational needs ............................................... 394.5Cross-border energy considerations and compensatory strategies .................... 414.6Recommendations for a resilient energy future through renewables.................. 41 Appendix 1. Methodology .................................................................................. 431.Wind power capacity factor calculation ......................................................... 44 2.Solar photovoltaic power capacity factor calculation ....................................... 453.Hydropower proxy ..................................................................................... 464.Energy demand proxy ................................................................................ 48 Seasonal forecast skill measure............................................................................. 51 References ....................