AI 驱动的功率 IC 需求上升以及产能削减，推动 8 英寸晶圆代工价格可能上涨

TrendForce表示，AI驱动的功率IC需求上升以及产能削减，推动8英⼨晶圆代⼯价格可能上涨 2026年1⽉13⽇半导体TrendForce TSMC and Samsung are cutting 8-inch wafer capacity, pushing global 8-inch capacity to a projected 2.4% year-over-year decline in 2026.台积电和三星正在削减8英⼨晶圆产能，推动全球8英⼨产能在2026年预计同⽐下降2.4%。AI-driven demand for power ICs is becoming the key pillar supporting 8-inch fab utilization throughout the year.由AI驱动的电源IC需求正成为全年⽀撑8英⼨晶圆⼚产能利⽤率的关键⽀柱。Foundries are considering price hikes of 5-20%, though weak end-market visibility and cost pressure from risingmemory and advanced-node prices may cap actual increases.尽管终端市场能⻅度疲弱，且存储器与先进制程价格上涨带来成本压⼒，可能限制实际涨幅，但晶圆代⼯⼚正考虑5%⾄20%的价格上调。 The supply-demand dynamics of the 8-inch wafer market have shifted according to TrendForce’s latest foundrysurvey. As TSMC and Samsung gradually scale back 8-inch production, demand for AI-related power ICs continuesto grow steadily. Meanwhile, customers for consumer electronics, concerned over rising IC costs and potentialcapacity crowding in the second half of the year, have begun pulling in orders earlier than planned. 根据TrendForce最新的晶圆代⼯调查，8英⼨晶圆市场的供需动态已发⽣变化。随着台积电与三星逐步缩减8英⼨产能，AI相关电源管理IC的需求持续稳定增⻓。与此同时，消费电⼦客户担忧IC成本上升以及下半年可能出现的产能拥挤，已开始提前拉货下单。 As a result, Chinese foundries have already seen 8-inch utilization rates rebound to high levels in 2025. Foundries inother regions are also receiving upward revisions to 2026 orders, prompting broad improvements in utilization andencouraging foundries to prepare for price increases. 因此，中国晶圆代⼯⼚在2025年已看到8英⼨产能利⽤率回升⾄⾼位。其他地区的晶圆代⼯⼚也陆续上调2026年的订单预期，带动整体产能利⽤率改善，并促使晶圆代⼯⼚开始为调涨价格做准备。 TSMC formally began phasing down 8-inch capacity in 2025, with plans to fully shut down some fabs by 2027.Likewise, Samsung also initiated 8-inch capacity reductions in 2025, adopting an even more aggressive stance.TrendForce estimates that global 8-inch capacity will decline by about 0.3% year-over-year in 2025, marking thestart of negative growth. Although players such as SMIC and Vanguard have planned modest capacity additions in2026, these will fall short of offsetting the cuts by the two leading foundries, widening the projected capacity declineto 2.4%. 台积电已于2025年正式开始逐步缩减8英⼨产能，并计划在2027年前全⾯关闭部分晶圆⼚。与此同时，三星也在2025年启动了8英⼨产能削减，且采取了更为激进的策略。TrendForce估计，全球8英⼨产能将在2025年同⽐下降约0.3%，标志着负增⻓的开始。尽管中芯国际和世界先进等⼚商已规划在2026年进⾏⼩幅产能扩充，但仍不⾜以抵消两⼤领先晶圆代⼯⼚的减产，预计产能降幅将扩⼤⾄2.4%。 Growth in AI server power IC orders in 2025, combined with China’s localization push for ICs, has driven strongerdemand for BCD and PMIC processes at domestic foundries. Utilization rates at some Chinese fabs rose sharply frommid-2025, leading them to initiate catch-up price increases that took effect in the second half of the year. With Chinese foundries operating at full capacity, spillover orders have also benefited Korean foundries. 2025年AI服务器电源IC订单的增⻓，加之中国推动IC本⼟化，带动了国内晶圆代⼯⼚对BCD和PMIC⼯艺的需求显著增强。⾃2025年中期起，部分中国晶圆⼚的产能利⽤率⼤幅提升，促使其启动追赶式涨价，并于下半年正式⽣效。在中国晶圆代⼯⼚满载运转的情况下，外溢订单也使韩国晶圆代⼯⼚受益。 A look at the year ahead reveals that rising compute intensity and power consumption in AI servers and edge AIapplications are expected to sustain strong demand for power-related ICs, making them the primary support for 8-inch fab utilization throughout the year. In addition, PC and notebook supply chains—concerned that surging AIserver demand could squeeze 8-inch capacity—have begun advance procurement of power ICs for PCs andnotebooks, and even some non-power components. 展望未来⼀年，随着AI服务器及边缘AI应⽤的算⼒密度与功耗持续提升，电源相关IC的需求预计将保持强劲，成为全年⽀撑8英⼨晶圆⼚产能利⽤率的主要动⼒。此外，PC与笔记本电脑供应链担忧AI服务器需求激增可能挤压8英⼨产能，已开始提前采购⽤于PC与笔记本电脑的电源IC，甚⾄包括部分⾮电源类组件。 These factors are helping Tier-2 Chinese and Korean foundries maintain high 8-inch utilization, while foundries inother regions are also seeing a clear recovery. TrendForce projects that global average 8-inch utilization will rise to85–90% in 2026, up significantly from 75–80% in 2025. 在这些因素推动下，中国及韩国的⼆线晶圆代⼯⼚得以维持较⾼的8英⼨产能利⽤率，⽽其他地区的晶圆代⼯⼚也正出现明显复苏。TrendForce预计，2026年全球8英⼨晶圆平均产能利⽤率将提升⾄85%–90%，较2025年的75%–80%显著上升。 With expectations that 8-inch capacity will tighten in 2026, some foundries have notified customers of planned priceincreases ranging from 5% to 20%. TrendForce notes that, unlike in 2025, when price adjustments were limited tocertain legacy nodes or platforms, this round of increases would apply broadly across customers and processplatforms. 在2026年8英⼨产能趋紧的预期下，部分晶圆代⼯⼚已通知客户计划调涨价格，幅度约为5%⾄20%。TrendForce指出，与2025年仅限于特定成熟制程或平台的价格调整不同，此轮涨价将⼴泛适⽤于各类客户及制程平台。 However, concerns over consumer end-markets, together with cost pressures from rising memory and advanced-node prices squeezing peripheral IC margins, may ultimately limit the extent of actual price hikes. 然⽽，对消费端市场的担忧，以及存储器和先进制程价格上涨所带来的成本压⼒正挤压外围IC的利润空间，最终可能会限制实际涨价幅度。 For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, pleaseclickhere, or email the Sales Department at SR_MI@trendforce.com 如需了解TrendForce