ARK 对 SpaceX 在 2030 年的预期价值：约 2.5 万亿美元企业价值

ARK对SpaceX在2030年的预期价值：约2.5万亿美元企业价值 Developed in collaboration with Mach33, ARK’s open-source SpaceX model yields an expected enterprisevalue in 2030 of ~$2.5 trillion, generating a ~38% compound annual rate of return from its last funding round at$350 billion in December 2024.Tuned to the 75th and 25th percentile Monte Carlo outcomes, our bull andbear cases are ~$3.1 trillion and ~$1.7 trillion, respectively, as shown below.1 与Mach33合作开发的ARK开源SpaceX模型在2030年的预期企业价值约为2.5万亿美元，⾃2024年12⽉最后⼀轮以3500亿美元估值计算，产⽣约38%的年复合回报率。根据第75和第25百分位的蒙特卡洛结果调整，我们的⽜市和熊市情景分别约为3.1万亿美元和1.7万亿美元，⻅下⽂。1 Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025. For the benefit of readers, this article presents “expected” (or“base”), “bear,” and “bull” cases as a way of contextualizing the meaning of our 2030 valuation expectations.Methodologically, we arrive at our base-case valuation by averaging one million simulations produced by our MonteCarlo model. Our bear and bull cases are the 25th and 75th percentile values, respectively. Forecasts are inherentlylimited and cannot be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision and are built on our modeling thatreflects our biases and long-term positive view of the company. Please see additional disclosures on forecasts at theend of the document. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. 来源：ARK Investment Management LLC，2025年。为便利读者，本⽂以“预期”（或“基准”）、“悲观”和“乐观”情形来阐明我们对2030年估值预期的含义。在⽅法上，我们通过对蒙特卡罗模型产⽣的⼀百万次模拟取平均来得到基准情形估值。我们的悲观和乐观情形分别为第25和第75百分位值。预测本质上存在局限，不能作为投资决策的依据，且基于我们的模型，反映了我们的偏⻅和对该公司⻓期的积极看法。关于预测的更多披露信息⻅⽂末。仅供参考，不应被视为投资建议，或买⼊、卖出或持有任何特定证券的推荐。 Our open-source model includes 17 key independent inputs to simulate a range of potential outcomes forSpaceX, including Mars, and its enterprise value in both 2030 and 2040, as shown below. For dynamicvisualizations, please refer to Mach33’s blog, available.here 我们的开源模型包含17个关键独⽴输⼊，⽤于模拟SpaceX（包括⽕星相关业务）在2030年和2040年可能出现的⼀系列结果及其企业价值，如下所示。有关动态图示，请参阅Mach33的博客，链接在此。 Note: Earth enterprise value (EV) is calculated as our forecasted EBITDAmultiplied by an 18x EBITDA-to-EV multiple,consistent with the industry average for aerospace and defense companies per Stern. Mars enterprise value reflectsthe accumulated cash designated for Mars development plus the book value assigned to SpaceX for infrastructure builton Mars. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC and Mach33, 2025. This analysis draws on a range of externaldata sources as of May 29, 2025, which may be provided upon request. For informational purposes only and should notbe considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Forecasts areinherently limited and cannot be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision and are built on our modelingthat reflects our biases and long-term positive view of the company. 注：地球企业价值（EV）按我们预测的税息折旧及摊销前利润（EBITDA）乘以18倍的EBITDA到EV倍数计算，该倍数与Stern所示的航天与国防公司⾏业平均值⼀致。⽕星企业价值反映为指定⽤于⽕星开发的累计现⾦加上分配给SpaceX⽤于⽕星上建造基础设施的账⾯价值。来源：ARK Investment Management LLC与Mach33，2025年。本分析基于截⾄2025年5⽉29⽇的⼀系列外部数据来源，可按需提供。仅供参考，不应被视为投资建议或买⼊、卖出或持有任何特定证券的推荐。预测本质上具有局限性，不能被依赖作为投资决策的依据，且基于我们的建模反映了我们的偏⻅和对该公司的⻓期积极观点。23 Source: ARK Investment Management LLC and Mach33, 2025. This analysis draws on a range of external data sourcesas of May 29, 2025, which may be provided upon request. For informational purposes only and should not beconsidered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Forecasts are inherentlylimited and cannot be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision and are built on our modeling thatreflects our biases and long-term positive view of the company. 来源：ARK Investment Management LLC与Mach33，2025年。本分析基于截⾄2025年5⽉29⽇的⼀系列外部数据来源，可按需提供。仅供参考，不应被视为投资建议或买⼊、卖出或持有任何特定证券的推荐。预测本质上存在局限性，不能作为投资决策的依据，且建⽴在反映我们偏⻅和对公司⻓期看涨观点的模型基础上。 We present the details of our model in the following seven sections: 我们在以下七个部分中展示了模型的详细内容： Model Logic模型逻辑 Analytically, the model works like aflywheel with self-reinforcing momentum, as shown in the two charts below:Beginning with cash, SpaceX builds rockets and satellites, creates orbital bandwidth, acquires Starlinkcustomers, and reinvests the resulting cash. As the cycle continues, fundsflow gradually toward the development of Mars, until the Starlink constellation is complete. 从分析上看，该模型如同⼀个具有⾃我强化动⼒的⻜轮，正如下⾯两张图所示：从现⾦开始，SpaceX建造⽕箭和卫星，创造轨道带宽，获取Starlink⽤户，并将由此产⽣的现⾦再投资。随着循环的持续，资⾦逐渐流向⽕星开发，直⾄Starlink星座完成。 Source: ARK Investment Management LLC and Mach33, 2025. For illustrative purposes only. Forecasts are inherentlylimited and cannot be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision and are built on our modeling thatreflects our biases and long-term positive view of the company. 来源：ARK Investment Management LLC和Mach33，2025。仅为说明性⽤途。预测本质上具有局限性，不能作为投资决策的依据，且基于我们的模型，该模型反映了我们的偏⻅和对该公司的⻓期积极看法。 When the Starlink constellation is complete, we assume that SpaceX sustains the conste